The points battle to watch in Charlotte elimination race

Leaving Kansas, there are six drivers feeling snug of their playoff place with 40+ factors between themselves and the dreaded elimination zone.

Joey Logano and Ross Chastain should not amongst them, and all eyes will probably be on these two subsequent weekend on the Charlotte ROVAL.

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Logano misplaced 11 factors on the cutline after a tumultuous weekend, and is now simply 13 factors forward. Chastain really misplaced a degree from -12 to -13, however the driver he is chasing has shifted from Chase Briscoe to Logano. Briscoe is now at +21, so definitely not out of the woods but both.

There are three different drivers under the cutline as properly, however they’re a bit additional again than Chastain. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, Bubba Wallace is now 26 factors again, his 23XI Racing teammate Tyler Reddick is 29 factors behind, and Austin Cindric is actually in a must-win state of affairs at 48 factors down.

Nevertheless, we will give attention to simply two drivers right here, and the 13 factors that separate Chastain and Logano — a margin that may very well be largely erased in a single stage. Each of those drivers will probably be hyper-fixated on stage factors at Charlotte, however which one has the upper-hand with regards to turning each left and proper?

Whereas Chastain earned his first profession Cup win (COTA 2022) and his most up-to-date Cup pole (Watkins Glen 2024) on a street course, Logano hasn’t gained at a street course in over a decade (Watkins Glen 2015). No matter that, these are two of probably the most aggressive drivers on the grid, so that you will be sure that each of them will probably be doing no matter they will to get their automobiles to the entrance this weekend.

Chastain has a slight edge at street/avenue programs in 2025

Joey Logano, Group Penske Ford

Photograph by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Pictures

There have been 5 street/avenue programs run to date this 12 months, and whereas Chastain has outscored Logano in 4 of them, solely as soon as did he handle to achieve 13 factors on the three-time champion (Mexico Metropolis).

Chastain is averaging a end of 14.4 at such occasions this 12 months, whereas Logano is at 15.8, so there’s not that a lot distinction within the closing ending consequence both.

The place Chastain may actually discover a bonus is qualifying, particularly with the quick 25-lap levels on the ROVAL. The Trackhouse driver has a mean beginning place of 8.4 at street/avenue programs this 12 months with three begins inside the highest 5, whereas Logano is at 15.4 and has not certified greater than ninth.

It seems to be benefit Chastain, however once more, he’ll must do greater than that to make up the present distinction. As of proper now, Logano wins the tiebreaker (which is greatest end within the spherical) together with his fourth-place end at New Hampshire, so he really wants 14 factors.

Logano higher on the ROVAL total

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet; Joey Logano, Group Penske Ford

Photograph by: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures

And whereas Logano is not any street course king, the stats immediately shift into his favor if we solely take a look at the ROVAL lately. In 2024, Logano completed eighth and positioned second in each levels. Chastain scored 38 fewer factors as he positioned twenty eighth after getting collected in some mid-race incidents.

It is price noting that Chastain wasn’t within the playoffs final 12 months and wasn’t actually involved with scoring stage factors in that race, however it was the alternative in 2023 with Chastain making an attempt to flee elimination whereas Logano was now not a part of the title struggle. On that day, Chastain scored eight extra factors than him. Even nonetheless, Logano completed fifth whereas Chastain was in tenth.

The primary race of the Subsequent Gen period on the ROVAL was in 2022. On this state of affairs, each have been factors racing as a part of the playoffs. Logano went out and gained Stage 1 and Chastain really gained Stage 2, however the Trackhouse driver ended up hitting the wall and ending thirty seventh, a number of laps down. Logano ended up 18th, and clearly outscored him there. These two drivers really went on to complete 1-2 within the championship standings that 12 months, with Logano taking the crown.

So, latest historical past says that Chastain will acquire floor, however he’ll want to seek out some extra, particularly since Logano has completed greater than Chastain within the final three ROVAL races.

But when Chastain have been to have a secret weapon, then it will be his Kiwi teammate within the No. 88 automobile. There is not any doubt that Chastain will spend this upcoming race week working intently with teammate Shane van Gisbergen, a street course ace in contrast to any NASCAR has seen earlier than. He has gained the final 4 consecutive street/avenue course races, and is the defending pole-sitter on the ROVAL. Chastain might want to lean closely on the three-time Supercar champ as he tries to bridge the hole between himself and the stealthily constant Penske No. 22.