This Ain’t Team Entropy, but We’ve Got Some Races To Untie

Final yr, after a commerce deadline sell-off, the Tigers snagged a Wild Card spot due to the mix of a late surge and a ugly collapse by the Twins. This yr, it’s the Tigers who’re in peril of fumbling away a playoff berth, as they’ve misplaced 11 out of 15 since September 3, whereas the Guardians have gained 15 out of 18. In the meantime, the Mets have misplaced 12 out of 19 this month, slipping from the third NL Wild Card spot to being on the surface trying in because of the tiebreaker with the Reds.

Notably with that tiebreaker looming so giant, with six days to go within the common season, it’s time for an additional have a look at what’s at stake. This was Staff Entropy territory, however alas within the 2022 Collective Bargaining Settlement, Main League Baseball and the gamers’ union traded the potential pleasure and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death Wild Card video games in trade for a bigger stock of playoff video games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the highest two groups in every league by permitting them to bypass the potential of being eradicated in a best-of-three collection. These bye groups are simply 6-6 underneath the brand new format, however throughout a bigger pattern going again to 1981, analysis by Dan Szymborski, freshly up to date for this text, reveals that in matchups the place with one playoff staff had a layoff of 4 or extra days whereas its opponent had two or fewer days off, the staff with extra relaxation went 27-13 in its subsequent sport. It’s a bonus.

Anyway, as we head into the season’s last days, right here’s a have a look at the varied situations nonetheless in play in the case of playoff seeding, and the way the tiebreaker guidelines might decide who performs on into October and who goes residence.

Byes

The Brewers (95-62) and Phillies (92-64) have clinched their respective divisions and all however sewn up the primary and second seeds, respectively; since Milwaukee gained the season collection between the 2 groups, 4-2, Philadelphia must overtake the Brewers with a view to seize the highest seed. Whether or not or not that occurs, the Dodgers (88-68) — who misplaced their season collection towards each of these groups — have solely a faint probability of capturing a bye, 1.4% based on our Playoff Odds. They’ve clinched a playoff berth, personal a 2 1/2-game lead over the Padres (86-71), and maintain the tiebreaker towards San Diego by dint of their 9-4 season-series document; Los Angeles’ magic quantity to clinch the division is three. At this level, it’s mathematically inconceivable for the Padres to seize one of many high two seeds.

The image is far murkier within the AL, the place all three division leaders are forward by three video games or fewer, and the place solely the Blue Jays (90-66) have clinched a playoff berth. Odds-wise, the Mariners (87-69) have the strongest shot at a bye (94.9%), adopted by the Blue Jays (86.1%), with the Yankees, who’re 88-68, two video games again, having stronger odds (13.8%) than the Tigers (85-71, 3.7%). I’ll untangle the varied situations within the context of the person divisions.

AL East

I’ll have been untimely in invoking Yogi Berra final week, for the reason that Blue Jays have since misplaced 4 out of six, whereas the Yankees have gained 5 out of six. Toronto does maintain the season-series benefit, 8-5. The Jays shut out the season by internet hosting the Crimson Sox (Sept. 23–25) and Rays (Sept. 26–28); their .515 strength-of-schedule score is the second highest of any AL contender. The Yankees, in contrast, host the White Sox (Sept. 23–25) and Orioles (Sept. 26–28); their .445 strength-of-schedule score is the second lowest of any AL contender.

The Crimson Sox (85-71) have a 0.1% shot at profitable the division. For that to occur, they must sweep the Blue Jays in Toronto after which the Tigers at residence (Sept. 26–28); in the meantime, the Blue Jays would additionally should drop all three to the Rays, making what would nonetheless be a 7-6 season-series benefit towards the Crimson Sox moot. Beneath that situation, the Yankees must go 3-3 or worse, because the Crimson Sox maintain the tiebreaker towards New York by way of their 9-4 head-to-head document. I wouldn’t maintain my breath.

Although neither the Yankees nor Crimson Sox have clinched playoff berths, their odds of doing so are greater than any AL staff outdoors the East apart from the Mariners, with New York’s odds rounding as much as 100% (name it “higher than 99.949%”) and Boston’s at 90.4%.

AL Central

This one wasn’t even on my radar final week! As just lately as September 3, the Tigers had been 81-60, 10 video games forward of the Guardians (69-69 on the time). Since then, the Tigers have gone 4-11, whereas the Guardians have gone 15-3, trimming Detroit’s division result in a single sport. The 2 groups face off for a three-game collection in Cleveland beginning tonight, with the Guardians — who’re 6-4 towards the Tigers so far — needing only one win to clinch the season collection. As famous, the Tigers play the Crimson Sox through the season’s last weekend, whereas the Guardians host the Rangers (79-77), who’re getting ready to official elimination from competition after shedding seven straight. The percentages nonetheless give the Tigers a 63.3% probability of profitable the division, however at this level, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Guardians had been to sneak in there. As Kiri Oler wrote in her piece on the AL Central yesterday, “provided that three of Detroit’s final six video games are towards Cleveland, the error bars on these odds are enormous.”

AL West

The Mariners (87-69) and Astros (84-72) went into the weekend tied atop the division, with a three-game collection in Houston on faucet and Seattle’s 10-game profitable streak having simply ended. With Cal Raleigh homering twice, the Mariners swept all three video games, securing the season collection (8-5) and instantly giving themselves the most important division lead of any AL staff. They haven’t clinched a playoff berth but, however just like the Yankees, their odds spherical as much as 100%. They shut at residence with three towards the Rockies (Sept. 23–25) and three towards the Dodgers (Sept. 26–28), whereas the Astros journey to California to face the A’s (Sept. 23–25) and Angels (Sept. 26–28).

NL West

Once more, the Dodgers have a 2 1/2-game lead on the Padres, they usually personal the head-to-head tiebreaker. Los Angeles closes out with three-game units in Arizona (Sept. 23–25) and Seattle. The Padres, who cliched a playoff berth final evening with a 5-4 win over the Brewers in additional innings, are residence the remainder of the best way, first for the ultimate two video games of a three-game collection towards the Brewers (Sept. 23–24) after which for 3 towards the Diamondbacks (Sept. 26–28). San Diego is in, however its odds of profitable the division are right down to 2.3%.

AL Wild Card

The AL playoff image is now in a seven-to-make-six scenario, with every present division chief additionally fairly well-positioned in the event that they get bumped out of the highest spot. Right here’s the large board:

The colour-coded cells present whether or not a season collection has been determined, and in whose favor — step one in breaking a tie between two groups. I discussed many of those almost about the division races; observe that in all of these circumstances, the 2 groups performed (or could have performed) 13 video games towards one another, so there’s no want for a second-level tiebreaker. On the subject of the Wild Card, nevertheless, most contenders have performed six video games towards the groups outdoors their divisions, leaving open the potential of 3-3 splits. In these circumstances, for two-way ties the second-level tiebreaker is predicated on intradivisional information, which I’ve additionally included above. So, a Yankees-Guardians tie would favor Cleveland, which has the perfect document inside its division of any staff right here. If the Yankees and Astros had been to tie for a spot, primarily based upon their present information, New York would get it, however Houston nonetheless has an opportunity to get the higher hand given it has six remaining video games towards divisional opponents, whereas the Yankees solely have three.

If two tied groups end with the identical intradivisional document in addition to a head-to-head break up, the subsequent tiebreaker is interdivisional information, however since these would additionally should be the identical as effectively, the subsequent tiebreaker after that’s “highest profitable proportion within the final half of intraleague video games,” with an extra sport added on the entrance finish till the tie is damaged. Each groups could have performed 114 intraleague video games (the opposite 48 are interleague) and so the tiebreakers would come right down to their information over their final 57 video games towards AL opponents. It seems that it really doesn’t matter what the subsequent six days maintain in the case of untangling this for the Yankees and Astros, since via the primary 51 of these video games — relationship again to July 1 for each groups — New York is 29-22, whereas Houston is simply 18-33.

The opposite head-to-head splits that might require second-level tiebreakers contain one staff presently in a Wild Card spot and the opposite main its division; for these to matter, the leaders must slip out of first place or the Wild Card staff must take over first, by which case the information can be used to find out seeding. If that’s the case, the Mariners have clinched the benefit over the Crimson Sox, since at finest, Boston can go 33-19 in intradivision play. The Crimson Sox have to win all three video games towards the Tigers to personal that benefit. The Guardians have the higher hand towards the Blue Jays if it involves that.

As for three-way ties, if the three groups don’t all have an identical information towards each other (which might be the case right here), however one membership has a greater document towards each of the others (as can be the case for the Crimson Sox in a situation involving any two groups from among the many Yankees, Astros, and Guardians), that staff would declare the spot; another permutations the place that might be the case contain a present division chief winding up within the Wild Card pool, and there are some the place that staff would have the benefit in each (the Tigers personal benefits over the Yankees and Astros, for one). For 3-way ties the place that’s not the case, the groups are ranked by mixed head-to-head information towards the opposite two groups. If the Yankees, Astros, and Guardians tie, the Guardians (7-5 towards the opposite two) would have the benefit over the Yankees (6-6) and Astros (5-7). Since there would really be two spots on the road as an alternative of 1 underneath that situation, as soon as the Guardians are faraway from consideration, the tie between the Yankees and Astros would, as above, come right down to intradivisional information, which proper now favor the Yankees.

Supposing the three division leaders every maintain on and the opposite 4 groups end tied, they might first be ranked by head-to-head information towards the opposite three. In that case, the Crimson Sox (17-8) would have the highest rating and would get the highest Wild Card spot. The opposite three groups would then be unknotted by way of three-way tiebreaker guidelines, which is the case I simply defined above, with the Guardians getting the second spot, after which Yankees/Astros resolved by intradivisional information.

NL Wild Card

The Cubs (88-68) have clinched a Wild Card berth and have a 2 1/2-game lead over the Padres for the no. 4 seed. The Padres have clinched at the least a Wild Card berth, with a really slight shot on the NL West. San Diego has a 5 1/2-game cushion over the Reds and Mets (each 80-76), with the Diamondbacks (79-77) one sport behind them, so for the sake of simplicity, let’s simply say the Padres will get both the fourth or fifth seed and depart them out of the dialogue for the ultimate spot. The Giants and Cardinals (each 77-80) are 3 1/2 video games out; each groups are barely fogging a mirror, however with St. Louis beating San Francisco final evening, I had so as to add the Playing cards to the large board; we now have 5 groups vying for one spot, and that doesn’t even embrace the Marlins, who at 4 video games out are nonetheless mathematically alive after profitable six straight and 9 of their final 10. I’m not going to consider Miami right here; within the extraordinarily unlikely occasion that the Fish go on a run and make this factor shut, we’ll actually cowl that chaos because it unfolds. Oy vey:

The Reds and Mets entered Monday with an identical information however on very completely different paths. The Mets started September at 73-64 however have gone 7-12 since, the worst document of any contender in both league over that span. In the meantime, the Reds, 69-68 at that time, have gone 11-8, together with 5 straight wins, to maneuver right into a tie. Had the season ended Monday, the Reds would have gotten the Wild Card berth as a result of they gained the season collection, 4-2. Additionally they maintain the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, so if these three groups tie, it’s the Reds who will play on.

Word that from amongst these groups, the one video games remaining that might impression the season-series benefit contain the Giants and Cardinals, who play two extra in San Francisco, tonight and tomorrow. To paraphrase Baseball Prospectus’ Jeffrey Paternostro, Giants/Cardinals is God’s means of telling you that you’ve too many playoff groups.

The Reds host the Pirates for 3 (Sept. 23–25), then shut the season in Milwaukee (Sept. 26–28). The Mets go to the Cubs (Sept. 23–25) and Marlins (Sept. 26–28). The Diamondbacks, as famous above, host the Dodgers for 3, then go to San Diego for 3. After the Giants end with the Cardinals, they’ll host the Rockies (Sept. 26–28), whereas the Cardinals journey to face the Cubs.

Primarily based on the color-coding above, 4 tiebreakers stay unsettled. The Reds and Giants break up their six video games, and if the season ended at the moment, they’d have the next-level tiebreaker on the idea of the stronger intradivisional document. On that very same foundation, the Diamondbacks presently have the higher hand towards each the Mets and Cardinals. If the Cardinals and Giants do wind up splitting — certain, why not? — St. Louis has a leg up in the case of ending with the higher intradivisional document.

As for the opposite three-way tie permutations, step one in untangling them is, once more, mixed head-to-head towards the opposite two two groups The late addition of the Cardinals into this will increase the variety of permutations from six to 10, so thanks for that:

The Reds (7-5) would beat out the Mets (6-6) and Giants (5-7).
The Reds (7-5) would beat out the Diamondbacks (9-10) and Giants (9-10).
The Reds (8-4) would beat out the Mets (5-7) and Diamondbacks (5-7).
The Mets (7-6) would beat out the Reds (10-9) and Cardinals (9/11).
The Mets (9-4) would beat out the Cardinals (5-6) and Giants (3-7) whatever the final result of the remaining Cardinals-Giants video games.
The Mets (7-5) would beat out the Diamondbacks (10-9) and Giants (8-11).
The Mets (8-5) would beat out the Diamondbacks (6-6) and Cardinals (5-8).
The Cardinals (10-9) and Reds (10-9) would have the sting on the Diamondbacks (6-7), with the Cardinals then having the head-to-head edge on the Reds.
The Cardinals (10-7) would beat out the Reds (9-10) and Giants (4-6) even when they lose the ultimate two video games to San Francisco.
The Cardinals (6-4) would beat out the Diamondbacks (10-9) and Giants (7-10) in the event that they win at the least one in all their two remaining video games towards San Francisco. In the event that they lose each, the Diamondbacks can be the winner.

Received all that? It will likely be on the check, individuals. Within the occasion of a four-way tie, the precept is similar, with mixed head-to-head information inside the scrum:

The Reds (11-7) would beat out the Mets (9-9), Diamondbacks (12-13), and Giants (11-14).
The Reds (14-11) would beat out the Mets (10-9), Cardinals (12-14), and Diamondbacks (8-10).
The Mets (12-7) would beat out the Diamondbacks (13-12), Cardinals (8-9), and Giants (9-14) whatever the final result of the remaining Cardinals-Giants video games.
The Cardinals (13-10) would beat out the Reds (13-12), Diamondbacks (12-13), and Giants (10-13) whatever the final result of the remaining Cardinals-Giants video games, as a result of in the event that they lose each, they nonetheless maintain the season collection benefit towards Cincinnati.
The Mets (11-8) would beat out the Cardinals (12-10), Reds (13-12), and Giants (7-10) until the Cardinals win each of their remaining video games, by which case St. Louis would have the sting (.583 profitable proportion vs. the Mets’ .579).

A five-way tie? I’m not even certain it’s mathematically potential however, you guessed it, the rankings begin with mixed head-to-head information, by which case the winner can be… the Mets (14-11), beating out the Reds (17-14), Cardinals (15-15), Diamondbacks (15-16) and Giants (12-17) whatever the final result of the remaining Cardinals-Giants video games.

Whew, that was chaotic, if not in a Staff Entropy-flavored means. Should you want a reminder that this isn’t fully summary, simply do not forget that final yr the Diamondbacks (89-73) misplaced out on a spot to the Braves and Mets (additionally 89-73) as a result of they misplaced their season collection towards each. For all of those situations, it’s nonetheless higher if these groups settle issues on the sphere as an alternative of by math, however typically it crumbles that means, cookie-wise.