Many groups added to their rotations this offseason. Some opted to lift their ceiling by signing big-name free brokers. The Blue Jays introduced in Dylan Stop, the Pink Sox signed Ranger Suarez, and the Tigers added Framber Valdez, to call a couple of. Others tried to keep up their flooring by retaining current starters and buying depth. The Padres match the latter mould, as they introduced in Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, and Walker Buehler on low-cost offers this week.
Whereas beginning pitchers aren’t fairly as unstable as relievers, accidents and underperformance nonetheless led many to put up powerful seasons in 2025. Tonight, we check out three bounce-back candidates: a prime free agent, a veteran starter, and a minor-league signing.
High Free Agent: Zac Gallen
Gallen has been a front-of-the-rotation arm at his finest. From 2022-23, he posted a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 26.4% of hitters in that span and ranked eighth amongst certified starters with a 20.4% Ok-BB charge. His 9.3 fWAR ranked sixth forward of Giants ace Logan Webb. Getting into his age-28 season in 2024, there was motive to consider Gallen would proceed to pitch at his prime degree.
His numbers that 12 months have been nonetheless strong, if a step down from ace territory. Gallen missed a month with a proper hamstring pressure however nonetheless made 28 begins with a 3.65 ERA. He truly upped his groundball charge from 41.8% in 2023 to 46.2% in 2024. That mentioned, his strikeout and stroll charges each trended within the fallacious route, the latter now nearer to common after two years of fantastic management. Gallen slipped additional in 2025. Although he stayed wholesome and coated 192 innings in 33 begins, his ERA jumped to a career-high 4.83, his first below-average mark since 2021. The strikeouts slipped additional to 21.5%, whereas his anticipated stats (4.28 xERA) counsel he was higher than the floor numbers, however not by a lot.
Gallen entered the offseason as a buy-low candidate, so far as former aces go. We at MLBTR projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract even after his down 12 months. Ultimately, his market didn’t develop as hoped. Gallen settled for a one-year, $22.025MM reunion with Arizona that nominally matched the worth of the crew’s qualifying supply in November.
Clearly, the crew would like to see him return to his 2022-23 kind. On the very least, Gallen figures to offer 30 begins of mid-rotation manufacturing, although he’ll undoubtedly purpose for extra in hopes of securing a multi-year contract subsequent time round. The important thing for Gallen will likely be refining his breaking pitches, which graded out poorly in 2025 by Statcast’s run worth metric. His curveball was value 15 runs above common in 2024, however that fell to -4 this 12 months, with opponents slugging over .200 extra on the pitch. He’ll additionally look to convey up the strikeouts and hold the ball within the yard, having allowed the third-most residence runs (31) of any certified starter in 2025.
Veteran Starter: Sean Manaea
Manaea re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal through the 2024-25 offseason. On the time, he was coming off a robust 3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 innings in his return to full-time beginning pitching (having principally been a reliever for the Giants in 2023). With New York in 2024, Manaea struck hitters out at a 24.9% clip and did a good job at preserving the ball within the yard in comparison with his profession numbers. His .249 BABIP urged he benefitted from good luck, besides, he figured to offer strong, mid-rotation worth on his new deal.
Sadly, his 2025 season was the precise reverse of his 2024. Manaea went down with a proper indirect pressure in March and missed the primary three and a half months of the season. At one level, he skilled a setback when the crew discovered free our bodies in his throwing elbow. Lastly debuting on July 13, he made 15 appearances (12 begins) with a 5.64 ERA. Curiously, he posted that top ERA regardless of putting out a career-best 28.5% of hitters and strolling a career-low 4.6%. In the meantime, his anticipated stats (4.00 xERA and three.30 xFIP) painted a a lot better image than his surface-level numbers.
However, Manaea struggled badly with the lengthy ball in 2025, permitting 13 in simply 60 2/3 innings (1.93 HR/9). He additionally curiously ditched his sinker, which was value 10 runs above common in 2024, to as a substitute throw his four-seamer over 60% of the time. Opponents slugged .129 larger in opposition to the four-seamer in comparison with 2024, when he used it half as a lot. Manaea additionally upped his sweeper utilization however noticed diminished outcomes, together with a 9.6% drop in strikeout charge and a .148 enhance in slugging.
Maybe that was a mechanical drawback. Manaea adopted a decrease arm slot in 2024 and had a really productive second half. The mix of his indirect damage and additional tried mechanical changes could have contributed to his poor 2025 numbers, per Mets supervisor Carlos Mendoza (hyperlink through Alex Smith of SNY). The keys for him in 2026 will likely be regaining his pre-injury mechanics, differentiating the 2 fastballs like he did in 2024, and persevering with to get chases on the sweeper.
Minor-League Signing: Walker Buehler
The present model of Buehler is much from the one who completed fourth in NL Cy Younger voting in 2021. The now 31-year-old has pitched 266 1/3 innings for the reason that finish of that marketing campaign. He missed all of 2023 whereas recovering from August 2022 Tommy John surgical procedure. He returned for 16 begins in 2024, however the outcomes have been decidedly poor. Buehler struck out simply 18.6% of hitters in opposition to an 8.1% stroll charge and allowed practically two residence runs per 9 innings. His once-vaunted four-seamer was now his least beneficial pitch at 13 runs beneath common. Buehler pitched nicely within the postseason for the World Sequence-winning Dodgers, although. The Pink Sox then took an opportunity on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.
Sadly, 2025 was not variety to him both. Buehler pitched 126 innings in 26 appearances (24 begins) with a 4.93 ERA. His velocity was down on each pitch besides his slider. His strikeout charge fell to only 16.3%, whereas his 5.5% Ok-BB charge was fifth-worst amongst starters with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. Boston launched him on the finish of August. Although he did alright in a small pattern with the Phillies after that, it was clear that Buehler wouldn’t do practically as nicely available on the market this time round.
Now competing for a back-of-the-rotation spot in San Diego, Buehler must work onerous to regain some worth. He may begin with adjusting his pitch combine. He has already steadily decreased his four-seam utilization because it continues to lose velocity. In the meantime, Buehler’s sinker was well-regarded by Statcast in 2025, grading out as 6 runs above common. Making the sinker his major fastball may assist him evolve right into a soft-contact, groundball pitcher. His hard-hit share and common exit velocity have been within the seventieth percentile or higher in 2025, so constructing on that is likely to be his finest path to prolonging his profession.
Picture courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Pictures
