The upcoming flyweight contest between Matt Schnell and TUF 33 winner Joseph Morales, scheduled for November 8, 2025, on the UFC Apex, has drawn important consideration amongst bettors and analysts. The betting markets and information assessments collectively favor Joseph Morales to win, almost certainly by submission.
UFC Vegas 111 Betting Preview: Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
Present odds throughout main sportsbooks favor Joseph Morales. On the time of writing, Morales is listed as a -325 favourite, whereas Schnell sits as a +260 underdog. These odds translate to an approximate win likelihood of 73% for Morales and 27% for Schnell. Play extra numbers at https://aviamasters.sport/.
The market has remained comparatively steady within the lead-up to the combat, with no main modifications recorded within the ultimate week. Earlier strains had Morales within the -270 to -286 vary, whereas Schnell ranged from +225 to +260, indicating Morales has constantly been the betting favourite all through the build-up. There have been no abrupt shifts on this explicit combat’s line.
The most effective odds for round-based bets present that beneath 1.5 rounds carries a +135 worth, suggesting bookmakers anticipate a possible early end, however haven’t overwhelmingly dedicated to that situation. Resolution prop odds worth Morales at +225 to win on the judgers’ scorecards, with Schnell holding longer odds at +750 for victory by choice.
Morales’ strongest victory route stays through submission, priced at +175, with roughly a 73% likelihood assigned by sportsbooks. The small cage, Schnell’s suspect takedown protection, and Morales’ current ending type make this essentially the most believable consequence, particularly within the first two rounds.​
Ought to the UFC veteran Schnell defend early submission makes an attempt and reduce floor management time, Morales can safe rounds by positional dominance and floor strikes, with a call priced at +225. Schnell’s greatest alternative is a striking-based knockout, with strains set at +1200. The quantity differential provides Schnell some urgency to press for injury, however Morales’ defensive expertise make this consequence unlikely.
Joseph Morales is using UFC on a formidable win streak, most lately submitting Alibi Idiris with a triangle choke. Blended in are skilled victories, TUF wins, and grappling matches. Morales is youthful, brisker, and carries a 13-2 skilled file. His sport facilities round grappling superiority, with 2.63 submission makes an attempt per quarter-hour and a 54% submission end price. Morales converts takedowns at 50% accuracy and demonstrates excessive effectivity as soon as on the mat.
Morales is really useful as a strong favourite for each straight and method-of-victory bets, significantly in submission prop and early spherical end markets. Ought to Schnell succeed, it will doubtless be through attritional hanging and sturdy defensive changes in deep rounds, a much less possible however not inconceivable path.
