UFC Mexico odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Moreno vs. Erceg

UFC Mexico Metropolis occurs this weekend (Sat., March 29, 2025) inside CDMX Area in Mexico Metropolis, Mexico. The ESPN+-streamed important occasion includes a Flyweight title between former division champion, Brandon Moreno, and former title challenger, Steve Erceg. Each will probably be hoping a win will get them nearer to a rematch with the winner of Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France (a match-up that was leaked!).

The co-main occasion was put collectively simply this week. It sees Manuel Torres making an attempt to thrill the hometown followers in a struggle with the ever-exciting Drew Dober, who’s combating for the primary time since a ghastly reduce stopped his struggle with Jean Silva (see that right here).

UFC Mexico’s important card additionally has Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer, Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales, David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira and Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas.

The “Prelims” undercard are headlined by Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara. This portion of the cardboard additionally has Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa and Crazy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri.

Let’s checkout the cash strains on “Moreno vs. Erceg” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Mexico Principal Card Cash Line Odds

Brandon Moreno (-238) vs. Steve Erceg (+195)

The shine has come off Erceg currently thanks largely to a primary rounf technical knockout loss to Kai Kara-France (see that right here). That was his first struggle since his unsuccessful try and wrest UFC’s Flyweight title away from Alexandre Pantoja. He was on tempo to beat Pantoja after piecing him up with strikes within the early rounds, however a disastrous resolution to begin wrestling opened the door for Pantoja to get again into the struggle after which take it over.

Previous to these struggles towards high Flyweight expertise, Erceg styled on Matt Schnell (who briefly retired just lately), Alessandro Costa (who isn’t ranked) and David Dvorak (who’s now not with UFC). That each one appears a lot much less thrilling now than it did within the lead as much as his Pantoja struggle.

There are not any questions over whether or not Moreno can hold with high Flyweight expertise — he’s battled and crushed each main participant within the division. Final outing, he dominated Amir Albazi for a lopsided resolution. That adopted up his back-to-back losses to Brandon Royval and Alexandre Pantoja (each by shut cut up choices).

Moreno’s pedigree, by which I imply the talents which have been honed with reps towards elite opposition, is way past Erceg’s. That alone is sufficient for me to select Moreno straight up. I’m truly stunned his odds aren’t shorter than they’re right here.

Erceg backers are seemingly hoping his boxing will do the trick right here and that he’ll absolutely decide to it (in contrast to he did towards Pantoja). He’s a really crisp striker with nice timing. Nevertheless, his offense isn’t ok to make up for his defensive liabilities.

Erceg’s vital putting differential (vital strikes landed per minute minus vital strikes absorbed per minute) is simply 0.15. Moreno’s isn’t significantly better at 0.45. Moreno’s low differential is due to his wars with Figueiredo, Royval and the like. Provided that three of Erceg’s 5 opponents are very low stage, you’d anticipate a revered striker to have a a lot larger stat than that.

In his debut with Dvorak, Erceg landed 54 and absorbed 53. In opposition to Costa, he did significantly better, touchdown 74 and absorbing 54. And towards Schnell, who supplied Erceg’s solely UFC end to this point, he landed 34 and absorbed 22.

Within the Pantoja struggle Erceg landed 111 and absorbed 125 and towards Kara-France he absorbed 18 and landed simply 9.

In Moreno’s final struggle, he landed 132 vital strikes on Albazi and absorbed simply 63. When Moreno misplaced a cut up resolution to Pantoja, he landed 147 vital strikes to Pantoja’s 129.

Provided that Erceg doesn’t have the wrestling to make this something apart from a kickboxing match, I believe we’re going to see Moreno pour it on and Erceg battle to maintain up. I believe we’re heading for a call with Moreno touchdown round 130 vital strikes and Erceg struggling to crack 100.

Moreno by resolution on this struggle is tempting at +110. My largest query on that guess, although, is whether or not Erceg is sweet sufficient to final 5 rounds with him. Due to that the -5.5 level unfold is fairly tempting. I truthfully don’t assume Erceg will take a spherical off Moreno, so this guess covers that in addition to if there’s a end for Moreno.

The spherical whole is 4.5 rounds, whereas the over is the favourite at -230. The underneath is +175. That needs to be tempting for those who’re even larger on Moreno and decrease on Erceg than I’m.

In case you assume Moreno stops Erceg you will get +350 on him to win by (technical) knockout or +800 for him to win by submission (50 p.c of his professional wins are by submission you understand …).

For my greatest guess, I’m enjoying a bit protected and going with DraftKings identical struggle parlay of Moreno to Win and Over 2.5 rounds. I believe if Moreno does get a stoppage it comes comparatively late (three of the 4 stoppages by Moreno in UFC have are available spherical three).

Finest guess: Brandon Moreno to win and over 2.5 rounds (-175)

Manuel Torres (-125) vs. Drew Dober (+105)

UFC might need been anticipating a popping out get together for Torres at The Sphere final yr. He got here into his struggle with Iganacio Bahamondes on the again of three straight stoppages (together with this elbow knockout on Nikolas Motta). Nevertheless, Torres was pasted by Bahamondes for a technical knockout loss — the primary of his profession (see it right here). Bahamondes ended up utilizing that struggle as a spring board to relevancy at Light-weight.

Torres has the possibility of a do-over, although, due to a match-up with the very robust (and extra well-known) Drew Dober.

We final noticed Dober enduring a fire-fight with Jean Silva. That struggle ended due to an enormous reduce on Dober. Previous to that struggle, Dober dropped a unanimous resolution to Renato Moicano. Dober’s final win was a 2023 technical knockout over Ricky Glenn (see it right here).

This needs to be a wild struggle. Each guys wish to let the offense fly and, on this match-up, I believe that will probably be a detriment to Dober. He’s smaller than Torres and extra store worn. He additionally doesn’t have an escape plan when issues get nasty within the pocket — he tries to punch his approach out of issues. Torres, if he will get caught, does have good wrestling he can fall again on.

It’s important to anticipate a end on this struggle. Dober has solely heard the judges scores twice in his final 12 UFC fights, whereas Torres has solely gone the space as soon as in his 18 struggle profession.

The spherical whole for that is 1.5. The underneath is -180 and the over is +140. The underneath seems like guess given Torres’ monitor file. All of Torres’ UFC fights have ended within the first, as have all however one among his whole skilled fights.

The bookies actually assume this one is ending in knockout. Actual technique of victory (KO/TKO/DQ) is simply -280. You may get +300 on a submission, although. Torres has seven submission wins, together with his final win — a rear-naked choke on Chris Duncan (see it right here). And Duncan’s grappling regarded fairly good in London final week.

Torres by first spherical (technical) knockout is +300. Dober by first spherical (technical) knockout is +275. That’s not plenty of worth.

I’ll simply take the underneath, although, since Torres isn’t a one-trick pony.

Finest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (-180)

Kelvin Gastelum (+270) vs. Joe Pyfer (-360)

Pyfer ran by means of Marc-Andre Barriault final summer time, KO’ing him in little a couple of minute (see it right here). That noticed Pyfer rebound from a unanimous resolution loss to Jack Hermansson. The loss to Hermansson — the very best fighter Pyfer has fought by a mile — got here after stoppage wins towards Abdul Razak Alhassan and Gerald Meerschaert.

Then again, Gastelum’s final’s win was a bit bizarre. He overpowered Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Saudi Arabia in a bout that was abruptly modified to a Middleweight bout as a result of Gastelum was by no means going to make the supposed reduce to Welterweight. His measurement benefit over Rodriguez was essential for him pulling out the win.

Earlier than that, he misplaced to Sean Brady by way of kimura submission (see that right here).

Gastelum is a reasonably large underdog right here … and I don’t assume he deserves to be one.

Whereas Gastelum has misplaced quite a bit prior to now 5 years, he’s fought the very best round and infrequently has he regarded completely overwhelmed. He can hold with the elites. Can Pyfer do the identical?

Pyfer has regarded nice … towards the authorized agency of Meerschaert and Barriault. However, I don’t assume we’ve seen sufficient to say with confidence that he can get previous Gastelum, who’s remarkably nonetheless simply 33 years outdated.

Gastelum has by no means been elite at anybody factor, however he’s excellent in any respect dimensions of MMA. His well-rounded recreation has saved him within the rankings for the majority of his profession. That recreation has additionally seen him bested by elite strikers through the years. Pyfer packs a punch, however is he something Gastelum hasn’t seen earlier than? I’m not so positive.

I believe Gastelum may have the ability to frustrate Pyfer on the toes by urgent him into the cage and tiring him out. I believe he may additionally have the ability to get a takedown or two on Pyfer, although I don’t assume he’ll look to do this fairly often. I believe he may give us the form of struggle we noticed towards Rodriguez, a Jared Cannonier-style grinding.

I don’t assume Pyfer has the expertise or cage-marshaling expertise to cease that.

Finest guess: Kelvin Gastelum moneyline (+270)

Raul Rosas Jr. (-390) vs. Vince Morales (+290)

Rosas Jr. final competed at UFC 306 at The Sphere. His undercard struggle with Aoriqileng occurred whereas the sector was in boiler room mode. He received by way of unanimous resolution, however had a harder time than his -1000 odds urged he would.

The win gave Rosas Jr. a three-fight win streak, although. That run contains his rear-naked choke on Ricky Turcios (see it right here) and a technical knockout on Terrence Mitchell (see it right here).

Morales, in the meantime, competed simply final month, dropping a call to Elijah Smith. Previous to that, he misplaced a call to Taylor Lapilus — that was his promotional debut.

It’s laborious to look previous Rosas on this struggle. Morales is 34 and regarded fairly sluggish in his UFC fights so far.

Morales has artful grappling, so I hope we get to see him and Rosas duel on the bottom. In the end, I believe we’re going to see Rosas get plenty of dominant positions on this struggle (he completes greater than 4 takedowns per quarter-hour). And I don’t assume Morales will have the ability to threaten him off his again that a lot (given how expert a grappler Rosas is). I believe Rosas will get the again and finish this with a rear-naked choke sooner or later.

Finest guess: Raul Rosas Jr. by submission (+225)

David Martinez (-400) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+300)

Martinez lands a important card struggle regardless of being recent off Contender Collection. On Contender Collection, he received a unanimous resolution over Xavier Franklin. Martinez isn’t an unknown to the Mexico Metropolis crowd, although. He’s a former Combate World Bantamweight champion and match winner.

On the flip aspect, Oliveira has struggled towards UFC competitors. He misplaced a unanimous resolution to Tony Gravely in his post-Contender Collection debut. He was then completed by a Daniel Marcos knee to the physique (see it right here).

That was in 2023 … and he hasn’t fought since then.

Oliveira hasn’t regarded like UFC calibre in his appearances so far (what does that even imply these days, although?). Martinez hasn’t had a lot of a chance to show he’s any completely different. I do have respect for his Combate credentials, although, which embody a win over Francisco Rivera.

Martinez pours on plenty of quantity and we noticed that give Oliveira bother within the Marcos struggle. I believe a end or lopsided resolution is likely to be on the books for Martinez.

Finest guess: David Martinez -3.5 (-175)

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-155) vs. Kevin Borjas (+130)

Rodriguez dropped a call to Jerome Rivera on Contender Collection again in 2020. That was when Dana White and Co. didn’t signal everybody on that present. Rodriguez needed to put collectively a run on the Mexican circuit earlier than he acquired invited again to the massive present. In 2024, he acquired his probability and took it with a submission win over Denys Bondar. Then, at UFC 306, he scored a unanimous resolution over Ode Osbourne.

Peru’s Borjas, in the meantime, is coming off two losses. He was stopped by Alessandro Costa in Might (see it right here). Earlier than that, he misplaced a call to Joshua Van.

Similar to the Martinez vs. Oliveira pairing, this one feels prefer it’s been geared to provide the Mexican followers one thing to cheer about.

Rodriguez has been fairly enjoyable so far. However, I fear about how hittable he’s (3.15 vital strikes absorbed per minute versus over 2.13 landed per minute). If he have been combating somebody higher I’d be extra frightened. However, Borjas absorbs a loopy 6.7 vital strikes a minute and lands 4.92.

Rodriguez’s wrestling, alongside along with his much less porous putting protection, are most likely sufficient to get this completed.

Finest guess: Ronaldo Rodriguez moneyline (-155)

UFC Mexico ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Odds

Edgar Chairez (-280) vs. CJ Vergara (+230)

Chairez is one other veteran of UFC’s Sphere debut. At UFC 306 he misplaced a call to Joshua Van, although gave an excellent account of himself. Earlier than that he submitted Daniel Lacerda (after coming in heavy).

Vergara, in the meantime, is coming off a loss to Ramazan Temirov. That struggle was a bit embarrassing in that he was pressured to dash away from Temirov at one level, however was nonetheless put down with punches within the first spherical. Earlier than that, he was rag-dolled by Asu Almabayev (after coming in heavy).

The lasting impressions of these performances usually are not nice. And it makes me desires to fade Vergara on this struggle. That’s made simpler by the truth that Chairez may be very gritty and is aggressive even when over matched.

I believe Chairez’s boxing is cleaner than Vergara’s, too. So, I anticipate him to edge out this struggle for a call win.

Finest guess: Edgar Chairez by way of resolution (+450)

Jose Medina (+385) vs. Ateba Gautier (-575)

Medina performed the position of strolling punching bag in his final struggle reverse Zach Reese. He confirmed unimaginable toughness in that struggle, however that’s the form of factor we are saying when somebody simply will get hit a bunch with out providing something harmful in return.

Previous to that, he misplaced a call to Magomed Gazhiyasulov on Contender Collection. These are his solely fights outdoors the South American minor leagues.

The 22-year-old Gautier, in the meantime, is coming into this struggle with sizable hype (and because the largest betting favourite on the cardboard). He’s 6-1 with that loss being a cut up resolution in his second professional struggle. He’s received his final 5 fights by way of (technical) knockout and 4 of these have occurred within the first spherical. He punched his UFC ticket with a second spherical technical knockout over Yura Naito on Contender Collection.

Now, 2025 has been a yr of upsets thus far. And we’ve seen just a few huge favorites off of Contender Collection get humbled by somebody with marginally extra UFC expertise.

Certainly, only a few weeks in the past that was Yuneisy Duben and Josias Musasa. Additional again, we’ve seen Ibo Aslan, Cody Steele and Austin Bashi all come unstuck. And who can neglect what occurred to Payton Talbott?

Gautier is a dynamic striker, however his wrestling may be very poor. Medina’s not the man to show him for that. Gautier, who has a giant attain benefit, ought to have the ability to tee off on Medina with out an excessive amount of concern about being taken down.

Medina is hard as outdated boots and that’s the explanation over 1.5 rounds is at present the favourite at -175. I believe this is likely to be one too many robust match ups for Medina, although, and we may see him put down by Gautier’s energy.

I’m not tremendous assured on this one, given how we’ve seen Contender Collection standouts battle at instances. However, I’d somewhat go together with the underneath than the moneyline on Gautier or any form of huge upset.

Finest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (+135)

Christian Rodriguez (-155) vs. Melquizael Costa (+130)

This can be a nice struggle and it deserves to be on the principle card.

Costa regarded sensational when he beat Andre Fili final month. He disrupted Fili on the toes after which scored a slick guillotine end when Fili tried to take issues to the bottom. That was Costa’s second win in a row (he additionally submitted Shayilan Nuerdanbieke).

Within the different nook, Rodriguez regarded like the overall bundle when he beat Austin Bashi in January. He was a decent-sized underdog in that struggle, however confirmed off nice putting, defensive wrestling and grappling to fully confound Bashi. That noticed Rodriguez rebound from a submission loss to Julian Erosa.

This can be a actually robust struggle to name. Each these guys regarded like that they had actually put issues togeher of their final struggle. I’m leaning Rodriguez as a result of I believe his takedown protection (69 p.c) will power Costa into putting for many of the struggle. Costa regarded improved along with his putting towards Fili, however I believe he’s a stage beneath Rodriguez.

I believe we’re going to a call right here and I hope this struggle delivers the motion it guarantees on paper.

Finest guess: Christian Rodriguez moneyline (-155)

Crazy Godinez (-235) vs. Julia Polastri (+190)

Godinez has misplaced back-to-back choices towards Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Each these ladies appear to be peaking regardless of their ages proper now, so there’s not a lot disgrace in these losses. Earlier than that, she took a cut up resolution over Tabatha Ricci.

Polastri, in the meantime, received a cut up resolution over Cory McKenna in her final struggle. Earlier than that, she misplaced to Josefine Knutsson. That was a unanimous resolution, however Polastri gave the a lot hyped Knutsson some issues in that struggle.

Godinez ought to win this struggle primarily based on the power of her wrestling. Polastri isn’t dangerous at wrestling (or putting for that matter), however I believe Godinez’s specialization there will probably be an excessive amount of for her to deal with.

Finest guess: Crazy Godinez moneyline (-235)

Rafa Garcia (-500) vs. Vinc Pichel (+350)

Garcia is our different huge favourite on the cardboard. That’s regardless of the 30-year-old coming off a dominating loss to Grant Dawson. Previous to that, he took a call over Clay Guida.

The 42-year-old Pichel, in the meantime, is coming off two resolution losses to Ismael Bonfim and Mark Madsen. He was a +400 underdog within the Bonfim struggle.

This can be a dreadful struggle. Neither Garcia nor Pichel have been that energetic over the previous couple of years. Pichel has plenty of measurement over Garcia and he regarded extra aggressive in his most up-to-date loss than Garcia did.

Finest guess: Pichel moneyline (+350)

Jamall Emmers (-325) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+260)

Each these guys are coming off stoppage losses.

Emmers was run over by “The Prepare” Nate Landwehr final outing (see it right here), whereas Miranda was starched by Morgan Charriere in Paris in his final struggle (see it right here).

Emmers goes to need to brawl this out. Miranda will probably be hoping to calmly choose his photographs. Emmers busyness will most likely forestall that and result in Miranda enjoying catch-up for many the struggle.

Finest guess: Jamall Emmers moneyline (-325)

Austin Hubbard (+160) vs. MarQuel Mederos (-192)

Hubbard was making ready to struggle Daniel Zellhuber on this card, however was changed by Mederos.

Hubbard is coming off a call loss to Alexander Hernandez, whereas Mederos has been out for a yr, having received his UFC debut in Feb. 2024 over Landon Quinones.

I don’t know why Hubbard is the underdog right here. He was making ready for a harder struggle than the one he has now. He was far too timid and anxious in his final struggle, however he warmed up in direction of the top. I’ll guess on him studying one thing from that have.

Finest guess: Austin Hubbard moneyline (+160)

UFC Mexico Lengthy Photographs

Right here’s a few issues that look fascinating (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Mexico card …

Handbook Torres by submission – spherical two (+1600)

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober isn’t making it to the judges. The oddsmakers are leaning closely on this endings by KO/TKO, although. Torres has received half of his wins by submission and 30% of Dober’s losses are as a result of submission, although. Torres to faucet Dober within the first spherical is a paltry +550. That’s as a result of Torres is a primary spherical ending machine. If Dober can take him to spherical two… after which get submitted… there’s a giant payout there.

Two-fight parlay: Kelvin Gastelum and Vinc Pichel (+1545)

Gastelum is combating the unproven Pyfer. Pichel is combating the confirmed to be not excellent Rafa Garcia. Why can’t both of them win? Why can’t each of them win? What, simply because their odds are so excessive? We’re seeing Vegas miss on these supposed squash matches each week.

Three-fight parlay: Moreno vs. Erceg underneath 4.5 rounds, Rosas Jr. vs. Morales underneath 2.5 rounds, Medina vs. Gautier underneath 1.5 rounds.

The brand new UFC gloves are off! Welcome again to the land of knockouts. I believe there’s an opportunity Moreno may have the ability to end Erceg late of their struggle, as a result of him piling up numerous stress on the toes. Rosas Jr. has an incredible probability of submitting Vince Morales. And I’ve already said that I believe Medina’s Bolivian Zombie act is on its final legs.

Obtained one thing higher than these? Effectively, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your entire UFC Mexico Metropolis card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, earlier than the principle card begin time at 7 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

To take a look at the newest and biggest UFC Mexico Metropolis: “Moreno vs. Erceg” information and notes be sure you hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.