Josh Emmett returns Saturday to a featherweight panorama vastly completely different from after we final noticed him.
It’s been 16 months since Emmett’s vicious knockout of Bryce Mitchell, a end that saved Emmett’s identify firmly within the contenders’ circle. Since then, Ilia Topuria—the person who most just lately defeated Emmett—conquered the featherweight division with virtuoso performances in opposition to Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway after which introduced his intentions to go away the division to chase gold at 155 kilos.
Lengthy story quick: At 40, Emmett isn’t as removed from a UFC title shot because it appears.
That’s, except you’re assured Lerone Murphy beats him in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 105 predominant occasion. Murphy—at present No. 13 at 145 kilos within the MMA Combating World Rankings, three spots behind No. 10 Emmett—has been the sleeper of the featherweight division, with an undefeated document in eight octagon appearances and an rising quantity of high quality wins. He may not have the field workplace sizzle the higher-ups at TKO are in search of, however one other win ought to give Murphy an hermetic case for a future title shot.
The remainder of Saturday’s card is the now-expected smorgasbord of veterans and up to date Contender Collection signings, so let’s see what we will stay up for and doubtlessly study from this weekend’s rivals.
What: UFC Vegas 105
The place: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, April 5. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, adopted by a six-fight predominant card at 9 p.m. ET additionally on ESPN and ESPN+.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
Is that victory horns I hear?
That’s proper, final week I broke my 2025 streak of incorrect predominant occasion predictions with my daring choose of two-time UFC champion Brandon Moreno over Steve Erceg. So proud.
Now it’s time to go streaking and I’m feeling assured leaning in the direction of Lerone Murphy tonight. Just a few occasions this 12 months I’ve erred by going with the extra skilled fighter (Israel Adesanya, Henry Cejudo, Leon Edwards, Jan Blachowicz) or a fighter to repeat their success in a rematch (Amanda Ribas, Marvin Vettori). Basically, I’ve failed to acknowledge a sea change on the applicable time.
Murphy is closely favored to beat Josh Emmett and for good purpose. He’s robust offensively, adequate defensively (extra on this later), and, frankly, so much much less shopworn than Emmett. By advantage of being seven years Emmett’s junior, you possibly can tick off a bunch of containers in Murphy’s favor.
Emmett is saying all the fitting issues about voluntarily taking a break from motion to rejuvenate himself, which is smart at this stage of his profession. However the recreation isn’t at all times type to fighters who take their time and I don’t know if what Emmett gained in relaxation and recuperation could make up for athletic decay. Even when he nonetheless hits like a sledgehammer.
Make no mistake, that’s nonetheless a significant factor as Murphy’s chin has been cracked every so often. That’s not one thing you want to listen to while you’re choosing somebody to beat Emmett. One fallacious transfer and Murphy can be waking up again in Manchester questioning the place his weekend disappeared to. However I like him to outwork Emmett on the ft for 5 rounds and win a choice.
Choose: Murphy
Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito
Now this matchup has some upset potential.
Scorching on the ft, not unhealthy on the bottom, Joanderson Brito seems to be to get again within the win column after a irritating break up choice loss to William Gomis. He received’t have to fret a few lack of motion right here as Pat Sabatini will meet him head on, it simply may not be the place Brito prefers the struggle to happen.
Truly, let’s rephrase that. It may not be the place Brito ought to want the struggle to happen. Brito has proven up to now he’s unafraid to check his opponent’s grappling chops, which may very well be his downfall right here. Sabatini is extra harmful on the mat and even when Brito can keep away from submissions and vital harm, Sabatini could have no difficulty taking part in it secure and holding him down.
It is a stylistic chess match, one that would simply finish with Brito crowning Sabatini with a crushing mixture. I’m going with the grappler, although, so search for Sabatini to floor Brito early and sometimes and take away his choices en path to a choice victory.
Choose: Sabatini
Cortavious Romious vs. Chang Ho Lee
Finger of disgrace to Cortavious Romious for not even coming shut to creating weight. Come on!
That gaffe is one purpose I’m leaning in the direction of Chang Ho Lee. Admittedly, Lee didn’t blow the doorways off in his Highway to UFC finals win, however he confirmed a grittiness that may serve him properly in opposition to the decrease tier of the bantamweight division. Profitable ugly will be simply as a lot of a talent as successful fairly.
Particularly, Lee’s willingness to scrap within the clinch will serve him properly. Romious has potential, however proper now he has an easy type that revolves round fast placing bursts and takedown makes an attempt with little setup. That ought to end in loads of combating alongside the cage, the place I like Lee to put on Romious down. Because the bout progresses and Romious realizes Lee will not be wilting, the tide will slowly flip within the South Korean fighter’s favor.
I’m not choosing Lee to win any bonuses anytime quickly, however I feel he outlasts Romious on this evening.
Choose: Lee
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares doesn’t lose by submission. Gerald Meerschaert by no means wins by choice and 11 of his UFC wins have come by means of submission. Straightforward choose for me.
“GM3” forcing a faucet from Tavares would really be some of the stunning outcomes of the 12 months and it’s not out of the realm of chance. Tavares has been round perpetually and when you struggle for lengthy sufficient, finally you’re going to get caught. There’s no disgrace if that occurs in opposition to Meerschaert, who’s looking for submission victory No. 30.
However I can’t see Meerschaert taking Tavares down with a lot effectiveness, even when the Hawaiian veteran’s wrestling protection has proven noticeable cracks just lately. It is a basic middleweighty-y middleweight bout and which means three rounds of methodical, technical, and largely low affect placing.
And Tavares is the grasp of these kinds of fights.
Choose: Tavares
Ode Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule
Ode Osbourne is an aesthetic veteran, well-rounded sufficient to place anybody within the division on discover, however lacking that one thing particular to separate himself from the pack. I point out this as a result of latest Contender Collection signing Luis Gurule ought to win this, even when he’s in for a tricky struggle.
Gurule has loads of swagger in his step. He’s mild on his ft and he retains his proper hand cocked as he seems to be to counter when his opponent leaves a gap. He’s not afraid to get in shut and get soiled both, so we’ll see how Osbourne reacts when Gurule ramps up the strain.
There’s additionally loads of junk in Gurule’s recreation, which is to say he’ll make the most of unorthodox motion to interrupt Osbourne’s rhythm. It’s a tough puzzle to unravel and I’m curious how Osbourne will react if he can’t discover alternatives to attain early.
Gurule initiatives as a stable addition to the flyweight roster with prime 20 potential, however it’s additionally simply as doubtless he finally ends up filling the Osbourne position down the street. Both manner, I’ll take him by choice in his UFC debut.
Choose: Gurule
Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin
That is the fitting matchup for Torrez Finney after grinding his manner via three Contender Collection appearances to earn a UFC contract. However dig into the tape and also you’ll see he has weaknesses Robert Valentin can exploit.
First off, we’ve got to say the peak distinction. At 6-foot-2, Finney has six inches of top on the stout and muscular Torrez, and that’s a discrepancy Torrez has needed to cope with all through his profession. Although he’s fared properly up to now, he’s at all times in danger to soak up harm as he works to shut distance.
When Torrez will get his palms on his opponents, he often takes them for a journey earlier than giving them hell from prime place. The place I fear for “The Punisher” is his submission protection. Valentin is aware of his manner round a maintain or two, so he’ll continuously be threatening if Torrez takes too many dangers on the bottom. And that’s a definite chance given Torrez’s eagerness to on placed on a present.
Let’s put a pin on the upset discuss for now as I nonetheless suppose Finney’s wrestling approach and uncooked power are an excessive amount of for Valentin to beat, however finally one in all these taller middleweights are going to knock him down a peg.
Choose: Finney
Preliminaries
Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita
Rhys McKee def. Daniel Frunza
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes
Victor Henry def. Pedro Falcao
Martin Buday def. Uran Satybaldiev
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos
