Wait, Bryce Harper Swings How Much?!

Each morning, I’m going to FanGraphs and pull up a number of leaderboards. One in all my favorites as of late reveals trailing 30-day plate self-discipline statistics. Ever since Michael Harris II dug himself an enormous gap by swinging at all the pieces after which dug himself out of it by swinging some extra, I’ve been checking to see whether or not he’s reined in his swing-first tendencies. By no means worry, he’s nonetheless up there hacking — his swing proportion ranks 18th within the majors over the past month — however this isn’t an article about Harris. Listed here are the highest 10 hitters in baseball by swing proportion over the past 30 days:

This typically isn’t a rating you wish to be on the prime of. Ezequiel Tovar is on there as a result of he’s by no means seen a slider he doesn’t like. Within the combination, this group is hitting horribly over the past month. However there are two exceptions to that assertion. Ozzie Albies is having a resurgent stretch, and as you possibly can see from his low swinging strike price, he’s working fairly in a different way from the remainder of this group. That’s neat, however Albies additionally isn’t the main focus of right this moment’s article. No, that may be Bryce Harper, who appears to defy all the pieces I learn about endurance and energy.

Sluggers wait for his or her pitch. I’ve recognized that for so long as I’ve adopted baseball. I grew up on Barry Bonds’ good thought of the zone, A-Rod and David Ortiz taking robust pitches off the skin nook, Albert Pujols strolling extra typically than he struck out. And this isn’t some SEAGER subject, both. That metric is about measuring managed aggression, the flexibility to swing incessantly with out dangerous chases. Corey Seager’s profession chase price is 27.1%. The final time Harper confirmed that a lot restraint was 2018. How does he do it?!

A method that Harper does it’s by maximizing the worth on his early-count swings. “Oh, that was the one pitch he’s going to get to hit all at-bat” is usually only a cliché, however solely largely. Generally pitchers throw dangerous pitches! Loads of the time, in truth. Command is so freaking arduous. Guys miss the zone with 3-0 fastballs on a regular basis. Nobody is attempting to throw Bryce Harper one thing proper down the plate, and but pitchers incessantly do.

Should you strip out three-ball counts and two-strike counts, what you’ve left is hitter habits when the rely doesn’t include heavy incentives (to take a stroll or keep away from a strikeout). What does Harper do when the rely isn’t forcing his hand? He swings. The league swings at about two thirds of middle-middle pitches in these counts. Harper swings at 83% of them, the sixth-highest price within the majors, and he’s seen round 300 such pitches this yr. In different phrases, we’re speaking about 50 further swings at crushable pitches in good counts because of his aggression.

A Harper swing in a good rely is one thing to behold. The person doesn’t get cheated. When he unleashes on these middle-middle choices, 22.3% of his truthful contact is barreled up. That’s roughly double his standard price; in different phrases, he’s going after these pitches as a result of they’re simpler to smash, and he’s additionally promoting out to smash them.

If you consider Harper’s recreation as a perform of maximizing these swings, his extraordinarily excessive swing price begins to make much more sense. Why was Bonds’ plate self-discipline so necessary? As a result of it pressured pitchers to throw him one thing to hit. Harper is simply chopping out the center man. Neglect working the rely leverage to your favor after which inexorably squeezing the pitcher into making a mistake; Harper will discover the errors the place they’re.

That sounds nice in principle. For a lot of gamers, although, Harper’s plan could be underwear gnome-y. The first step: Swing at good pitches. Step two: … Step three: Revenue. Each huge strapping slugger would like to flail away at pitches over the center of the plate in good counts. The issue is that pitchers don’t throw these, or they throw so many breaking balls that swing-happy hitters are perpetually in two-strike counts, or any variety of potential issues. The difficulty, in different phrases, is that “simply mash the cookies” doesn’t work if nobody provides you any cookies.

I’m assured that pitchers don’t wish to throw Harper these gimmes. The info present that, in truth. He sees fewer middle-middle pitches in these counts than anybody else in baseball, a mere 22.3% of the time. The remainder of this checklist is populated with remorseless hackers (complimentary) like Nick Castellanos and Jose Altuve. In different phrases, pitchers are doing their degree finest to keep away from throwing these pitches to Harper.

You possibly can think about that being a giant drawback for him. Neglect the count-based model of the statistic I gave you there; solely Altuve and Oneil Cruz see a decrease price of pitches over the center of the plate, interval. And like each hitter, Harper doesn’t do as a lot harm when pitchers keep away from essentially the most harmful a part of the strike zone. Over the previous 4 years, a big sufficient pattern that I’m snug treating it as a great illustration of his expertise, location has loads to do with Harper’s outcomes:

Okay, so we’ve bought a puzzle: Harper sees pitches to hit lower than anybody else within the majors. He does most of his harm on these pitches, although. It’s the traditional slugger’s conundrum. Bonds and his modern-day compatriot, Juan Soto, take the gold customary method: Merely study which pitches aren’t strikes and don’t swing at them. Ultimately, the pitcher must enter the strike zone. What are you going to do, stroll Bonds or Soto each time? (Tempting!) Batters see pitches over the center of the plate a 3rd of the time once they’re forward within the rely and solely 20% once they’re behind.

May Harper pull that plan off? In all probability. From 2015 via 2021, he ran strong chase charges and swung lower than the league common, racking up a 148 wRC+ and a daft 17% stroll price over that timeframe. However in case you have Harper’s swing, you in all probability wish to use it, and he’s modified his plan of assault to emphasise full-effort cuts over all the pieces else.

Say these items collectively in your head, and also you’ll see the potential subject instantly. Virtually nobody swings greater than Harper. Virtually nobody sees pitches to hit much less incessantly than Harper. It’s one factor to swing loads for those who’re Ezequiel Tovar, a slap hitter who opponents would somewhat stuff with hittable pitches than threat issuing a free go. All pitchers wish to do once they see Harper is keep away from him, and but he’s up there performing like he’s taking batting observe.

You in all probability gained’t be shocked to know that Harper’s monomaniacal aggression on crushable pitches comes with some chase points. When he sees pitches outdoors the strike zone early within the rely, he swings at a whopping 36% of them. The league common there may be 23%. That’s a pure tradeoff; to get off so many swings at hittable pitches, hitters have to just accept some dangerous swings the place they’re fooled or learn location incorrectly.

The entire puzzle works anyway. Why? As a result of though Harper chases too many dangerous pitches, his status as a masher retains pitchers from attacking the strike zone, and early-count pitches outdoors the zone are nice for Harper, even when he swings at a number of too lots of them. Positive, Harper’s price of swings per pitch out of the strike zone is excessive, and so too is the speed at which he sees pitches out of the zone. Alternatively, he nonetheless doesn’t swing at even half of them, and he’s nearly by no means taking strikes. Because of this, he’s been forward within the rely extra incessantly than the typical hitter this yr regardless of his chase-heavy methods.

Harper’s weirdo method works as a result of the price of these early strikes isn’t notably excessive when in comparison with the good thing about teeing off on a simple one. His gambit has paid off handsomely, in truth. Consider it this manner: He sees pitches over the center of the plate at a first-percentile price. However 49% of his batted balls come from these pitches, a mark that’s within the thirty third percentile throughout baseball. His excessive aggression, then, is about changing a hard and fast provide of mashable pitches into as a lot harm as attainable.

Early within the rely, that’s wonderful. Harper has extra swings and misses than your common hitter, however he has fewer foul balls and fewer taken strikes, so he progresses via counts at a mean price. In two-strike counts, nonetheless, his method has a weak point. Swings and misses get much more expensive with two strikes, whereas foul balls aren’t as dangerous. In the meantime, everybody swings extra, so nobody’s taking known as strikes. If Harper continued to promote out for middle-middle pitches, he would possibly find yourself with a ghastly strikeout price.

However Harper doesn’t have a ghastly strikeout price. He has a easy repair: He simply stops swinging at such an excessive price. For 2025 as an entire, Harper’s swing price is the tenth highest in baseball, and his chase price is within the ninetieth percentile. When he will get to 2 strikes, although, he chases far much less typically. His chase price dips to the sixtieth percentile, a part of a restrained method with two strikes. His contact price shoots up – he whiffs on 60% of his chases earlier than two strikes and solely 40% after reaching two strikes. That’s very a lot in contrast to the league as an entire, which has a 47% chase whiff price earlier than two strikes and a 44% chase whiff price with two strikes. Harper simply turns into a brand new, contact-capable hitter when it fits him.

In different phrases, Harper’s swing-first nature is tricking us. You would possibly assume that he’s up there seeing purple, swinging out of his sneakers and letting the chips fall the place they could. However that’s not what’s occurring. Harper has nice strike zone judgment, and an awesome potential to completely destroy balls within the strike zone. For somebody with these two standout expertise, a hybrid method is right. He’s taking the large swings when the draw back isn’t dangerous, then turning right into a extra selective hitter when the rely makes that call extra priceless.

So in the long run, why does Bryce Harper swing a lot? As a result of pitchers are just about begging him to. The extra they avoid the center of the plate, the extra aggressively he hunts the few middle-middle items which might be left. It won’t make sense at first, however for those who’re pretty much as good as Harper, you can also make seemingly not possible issues work. How’s that for a conclusion?