Oh, Cinderella. The place did you go?
A second straight First Spherical largely composed of chalk has alarm bells ringing all around the web, as each sportswriter, pundit and fan has seemingly chimed in with their very own iteration of a tweet declaring that Cinderella tales in school basketball are lifeless by the hands of NIL and limitless transfers. On the floor, it’s arduous to argue.
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Time To Panic?
Solely 4 double-digit seeds superior to the Second Spherical, the fewest since 2007. For the second straight season, the best seeded crew to advance previous the First Spherical was a 12. On Friday, favorites went 16-0 and for the primary time since 1992, a First Spherical slate of video games within the NCAA Event got here and went with out a single double-digit seed stealing a victory. Oh, and 13 of 32 first spherical video games have been determined by 20+ factors.
Favorites went 16-0 yesterday.
This 12 months’s first spherical had 13 of 32 video games determined by 20+ factors.
Excessive Level solely true mid-major nonetheless alive, and its NIL might be most of any crew in 1-bid league.
I hate to confess it, however because of NIL & switch portal, Cinderellas could also be lifeless.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 21, 2026
For the informal hoops viewers that tunes in strictly for March Insanity (which, in equity, is a big proportion), the final two tournaments have been an unconvincing product. I get that. Even mid-major sickos like myself have needed to reconcile with the truth that the final two years are definitely a trigger for concern for the way forward for the dance. However I’d additionally warning everybody in opposition to giving up too rapidly.
As decisive because the numbers might recommend the First Spherical was, the concept not one of the little guys had an opportunity this 12 months is deceptive. No. 16 seed Siena, taking part in with simply 5 usable gamers, had all the nation captivated for 2 hours because it took an all-time nice Duke crew to the twelfth spherical. No. 15 seed Furman had UConn on the ropes for a lot of the sport, and No. 14 seed Wright State led in opposition to Virginia with lower than 5 minutes remaining. One other No. 14 seed, Kennesaw State, gave Gonzaga all it may deal with, and No. 13 seed Hofstra gave Alabama a reputable scare. If even one or two of these video games goes the other way, we’re having a totally completely different dialog this weekend.
How Did We Get Right here?
One other underrated perpetrator I’ve seen talked about a couple of instances, other than NIL and fast participant motion, is the presence of NET, RPI, KenPom and all the different superior metric scores which have made it so groups are seeded as a lot on how they appear on paper as they’re on what they really did throughout their season in lots of circumstances. Not solely that, groups merely depend on analytics extra in recent times and play smarter basketball in these risky conditions than they did even 5 years in the past.
One other enormous undiscussed issue for the decline within the variety of March seeding upsets is the committee now is aware of the way to seed. They’ve information that works and take note of it, as a substitute of antiquated RPI nonsense the place they consistently made errors.
— Michael DeCourcy (@tsnmike) March 21, 2026
Is there actually a trigger to be apprehensive? I’m not going to be dismissive and say there isn’t. Two consecutive tournaments which have offered little to curiosity the informal American fanbase isn’t one thing to be flippant over, and I’m not even saying that disingenuously. And it’s true, the newfound period of switch portal freedom is a serious driving power behind all of it, though I’m reluctant to put the identical quantity of blame on the idea of NIL fully.
I additionally assume it’s a bit extra sophisticated than that. The reality is, school basketball followers have been spoiled with upsets in March Insanity all through the last decade and a half to a disproportionate diploma. Of the 13 instances in NCAA Event historical past {that a} No. 15 or No. 16 seed have pulled off a First Spherical upset, 9 have occurred since 2012. Since 2021, extra No. 15 and No. 16 seeds have received video games than all the historical past of the NCAA Event pre-1997. So, does the brand new period of participant empowerment play a job? Certain. However a part of it’s simply the cookie crumbling the opposite method after an unprecedented stretch in school basketball historical past.
The counterpoint is we’re leaving essentially the most upset wealthy period of CBB historical past, and the tourney proper now’s nearer to what it was in 2010 than it was in 2022.
-12 of the 15 wins all time by 15 seeds got here 2012 or later, -14 seeds solely beat a 3 seed twice within the 2000s, – the one 2… https://t.co/d7PUknoEif
— GFed (@GfedGoCrazy) March 21, 2026
The Verdict
Perhaps the match is doomed and Cinderella tales actually are a factor of the previous. Once more, I’m not going to be dismissive of the challenges that mid and low-major applications face within the trendy period as they attempt to retain gamers and keep continuity. I simply must see a couple of extra years of this myself earlier than I formally pull the plug. I noticed sufficient on Thursday to persuade me that the little man nonetheless has an opportunity on the fitting day, even when Friday satisfied me that these days are going to be fewer and additional between.
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