2:00
Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Stay Chat at FanGraphs! At the least one in all us (normally each) can be doing this each Friday right now.
In the event you’re conversant in me or Jon, I feel you recognize that we take pleasure in speaking about something roster-related and can at all times attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not at all times perfect for a dwell chat the place you wish to reply as many questions as potential. However having each of us right here will permit us to nonetheless try this as a lot as potential as we alternate answering questions.
And right here we go …
2:01
: Hiya and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…
2:01
: Braves appeared to want Grant Holmes to numerous these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final 12 months. You all are pondering that modifications over the offseason?
2:02
: So I feel that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that position final 12 months.
Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility offers the Braves an opportunity to discover the market throughout the offseason and in addition give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks like he’s locked in as one in all their 13 pitchers.
2:03
Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility offers the Braves an opportunity to discover the market throughout the offseason and in addition give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks like he’s locked in as one in all their 13 pitchers.
2:03
: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him enjoying? Platoon? vL or vR?
Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays can be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t suppose the Phillies wish to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I feel they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other affect bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.
2:04
Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays can be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t suppose the Phillies wish to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I feel they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other affect bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.
2:05
: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the crew tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the crew reduce the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and in that case, how a lot?
2:06
: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract immediately, then the crew has to conform to a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Below the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to with no listening to are absolutely assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined by way of listening to aren’t absolutely assured. We noticed this final 12 months with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and had been in a position to launch once they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as an alternative of the complete contract.
2:07
: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you suppose Christian Moore will get known as up? when do you suppose he ought to?
Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how shortly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he received damage. I nonetheless suppose they plan on being aggressive, however it’s extra possible that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. In fact, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.
2:10
Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how shortly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he received damage. I nonetheless suppose they plan on being aggressive, however it’s extra possible that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. In fact, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.
2:10
: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you suppose an org offers him a giant contract?
2:11
: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I feel there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That mentioned, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a certain factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be shocked if he went elsewhere.
2:11
: Marte get 1st probability at 3b for reds? Or are they buying?
Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a couple of occasions … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered immediately. Possibly Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, you recognize what I feel. They’re searching for an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up large numbers in AAA.
2:14
Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a couple of occasions … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered immediately. Possibly Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, you recognize what I feel. They’re searching for an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up large numbers in AAA.
2:15
: If I may solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who wouldn’t it be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?
2:15
: Except I’ve received important purpose to imagine in any other case, I at all times facet with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Definitely doesn’t damage he had a very sturdy season, too.
Jason Martinez: I say you need to go together with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.
2:17
Jason Martinez: I say you need to go together with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.
2:17
: Crimson Sox package deal for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?
Jason Martinez: I feel they’ve nearly as good of an opportunity as any crew on the market. Feels like they’re going to go large in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Huge 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a package deal for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.
2:20
Jason Martinez: I feel they’ve nearly as good of an opportunity as any crew on the market. Feels like they’re going to go large in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Huge 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a package deal for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.
2:21
: The Reds mentioned they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent 12 months. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself wanting?
2:22
: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we received earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s potential they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s received to earn enjoying time elsewhere. One other chance is Matt McLain shifting to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.
2:22
: Proper now, now we have nearly all of Steer’s PT in left, primarily based extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18
2:22
: Assume the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the choose with Skenes not beginning the 12 months there
Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose so. Not getting the draft choose will make them suppose twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d suppose they’ll simply comply with the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. In fact, Jared Jones pressured his method onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I feel Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to no less than begin the season within the rotation.
2:25
Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose so. Not getting the draft choose will make them suppose twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d suppose they’ll simply comply with the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. In fact, Jared Jones pressured his method onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I feel Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to no less than begin the season within the rotation.
2:25
: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?
2:26
: Nootbaar’s at all times greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was really higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this 12 months), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you wish to name it, there’s no purpose to platoon him, neither is there an excellent platoon companion for him within the org proper now anyway.
2:26
: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?
Jason Martinez: I feel the Crimson Sox are going large this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.
2:29
Jason Martinez: I feel the Crimson Sox are going large this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.
2:30
: Jorge Mateo is an alternative choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins may properly store Carlos Correa, although they’d should eat some money.
2:31
: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?
2:32
: I’m on the Mets prepare just because they’ll and presumably will supply probably the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of doubtless tens of tens of millions to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I feel he clears $600M no downside.
Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I feel Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will depend upon how aggressive different groups can be.
2:34
Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I feel Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will depend upon how aggressive different groups can be.
2:34
: What sort of contract do y’all suppose Hyeseong Kim will get?
Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I feel he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I feel it will likely be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case lots.
2:37
Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I feel he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I feel it will likely be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case lots.
Oh sorry!!! I believed you had been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too shortly.
2:39
: Yeah, I feel that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an choose out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I want a shortstop badly on opening day I’d fairly be aggressive for Adames, in fact. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I feel he does fairly much like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, perhaps rather less since he’s received lots much less energy potential.
2:39
: Will the Phillies really “shake up the roster” like they mentioned? In that case, who do you see them buying and selling/shifting?
2:40
: I’m certain they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although shifting even one in all them with out consuming a bunch of cash can be fairly miraculous, I’d say. When it comes to gamers who would really garner an fascinating return, I feel Bohm and Stott may very well be fascinating, perhaps even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are most likely Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.
2:41
: In the event you had been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 12 months time-frame?
Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Avenue Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks like no lead is protected there and their lineup just isn’t terrifying in any respect.
2:46
Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Avenue Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks like no lead is protected there and their lineup just isn’t terrifying in any respect.
In all seriousness, I do suppose they’re making an attempt to construct a crew round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final 12 months they usually do have a couple of younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.
2:47
: Yeah, it looks like they’re lastly concentrating on fascinating strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as an alternative of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. A giant a part of constructing a crew like that’s figuring out who to offer large contracts or extensions to, they usually’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and so on.). The Tovar extension certain appears to be like nice to date, although.
2:48
: Do you suppose that if the Crimson Sox had been supply Seattle a package deal of Duran and one of many large 4, most definitely Mayer, that may lastly get Dipoto to chew on buying and selling one in all his pitchers?
2:49
: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t suppose that will fairly sway Dipoto to even think about that a lot in any respect. for those who’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who may very well be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a harder time saying no.
2:49
: How shortly does Jordan Lawlar rise up and might he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?
Jason Martinez: I feel he’s the kind of prospect {that a} crew will make house for as soon as he exhibits that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a situation the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench position. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH position sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.
2:52
Jason Martinez: I feel he’s the kind of prospect {that a} crew will make house for as soon as he exhibits that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a situation the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench position. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH position sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.
2:52
: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?
2:53
: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s a great instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some robust choices. He’s a wonderfully satisfactory — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the danger of putting out on different choices and never having the ability to do significantly better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I may see this one going both method forward of the 8 EST deadline.
2:54
: Will Rodriguez and Bart break up duties in 2025? What % of enjoying time for every.
Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t keep in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So it will likely be good to have him again. However with Bart wanting like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they’ll ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the power to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 break up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.
2:57
Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t keep in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So it will likely be good to have him again. However with Bart wanting like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they’ll ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the power to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 break up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.
2:58
: We simply received a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis positively is one. May very well be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.
2:58
: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason to date? They’ve been very energetic, however seemingly with none affect.
2:59
: That is principally the Angels’ M.O. for current offseasons, going for names over expertise, although no less than with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re not likely taking enjoying time away from somebody extra fascinating. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … fascinating … although.
2:59
: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5
Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the “over”, though I don’t suppose they’re going to plan their offseason round him being a giant a part of the crew. However essential to recollect, previous to his damage, that he’s such a great prospect that there was speak about shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I feel he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he may drive himself into the image once more.
3:02
Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the “over”, though I don’t suppose they’re going to plan their offseason round him being a giant a part of the crew. However essential to recollect, previous to his damage, that he’s such a great prospect that there was speak about shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I feel he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he may drive himself into the image once more.
3:04
: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such an extended season. Have a troublesome time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we count on, although.
3:04
: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Glad Thanksgiving to those that rejoice!
Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for immediately since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I feel 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.
3:05
Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for immediately since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I feel 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.
Thanks for becoming a member of us and keep in mind you can at all times ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).
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