Because You Asked: Evaluating Manuel Pena

Welcome to As a result of You Requested, a sequence through which I’ll dive deeper on among the gamers who readers inquire about in my weekly chats. These are typically guys who have been absent or solely briefly talked about on our final record cycle, or gamers with manufacturing that’s out of step with their repute or scouting studies. Additionally, Jonah Tong. Hopefully this train permits me to simply faucet an indication each week as a substitute of writing the identical sentence or two; we’ll see the way it goes. First up: Manuel Pena.

Pena is a 22-year-old utility prospect within the Diamondbacks system. We’ve written about him earlier than — Eric and I ranked him fifteenth in Arizona’s system in 2022 as a projectable energy hitter — however he shortly fell out of the primary part of lists and was absent completely throughout our final three cycles. This yr, Pena has began video games at first, third, and second base, in addition to in left area, and whereas he has a little bit shortstop expertise on his CV, he’s primarily a four-corner man at this level. No one’s asking concerning the glove, although. Pena has drawn consideration for one cause: Out of nowhere, he’s among the many minor league leaders in dwelling runs with 29. This comes after he’d hit 31 within the earlier 5 seasons mixed, so followers and readers understandably need an replace right here.

Proper off the bat, context is a giant a part of the story. Twenty-six of Pena’s dingers have come whereas enjoying for Amarillo — he’s solely homered thrice in 91 plate appearances since being promoted to Reno, not precisely a park or league often known as a pitcher’s paradise — and 14 of these got here in 31 dwelling video games. Amarillo has lengthy been one of the favorable locations to hit in the entire minor leagues. Sizzling, dry, and three,600 toes above sea stage, the ball flies at Hodgetown, notably when the wind blows out. And it typically does: By some measures, Amarillo is the windiest metropolis within the nation. Final yr, Hodgetown was the very best Double-A park for offense by a number of orders of magnitude in line with Baseball America’s glorious annual minor league park issue research, and it was second in all of minor league baseball in homers per sport at 2.98 per contest.

Not all of Pena’s Double-A injury has been accomplished at dwelling, however all of it got here within the Texas League. In each that circuit and plenty of others, offense has exploded this yr. Homers are up 44% yr over yr within the Texas League, and whereas we will’t be completely certain why that’s, many minor league analysts assume {that a} change within the baseball itself is a giant cause why. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America just lately studied the house run explosion and wrote that “the uptick in offensive numbers thus far in 2026 seems to be the results of some type of unintentional change” within the composition of the ball, a conclusion that I and several other of my sources share. One staff supply I spoke with stated that, holding launch angle and exit velocity equal, balls are flying 8-10% additional on common this season within the low and mid-minors in comparison with 2025. Stated otherwise, numerous fly balls that have been as soon as innocent 330-foot fly outs are actually 365-foot dingers. In case you have been a hitter seeking to put up numbers, you couldn’t ask for a greater spot to do it than Amarillo in 2026.

Nonetheless, regardless of how favorable the setting, it’s important to go on the market and hit the deep fly balls. Pena has accomplished that, and at a far larger fee than his teammates. Jansel Luis, a preseason Choose to Click on candidate, has had all the identical benefits and he’s hit half as many homers even with an additional 60 plate appearances. Demetrio Crisantes has missed time with an damage, however he’s a high 5 man within the system and a participant we’ve projected to develop a plus hit software. He has 4 dwelling runs in 32 video games on the stage, whereas Druw Jones solely has three all season. Pena’s manufacturing stands aside.

Let’s dive a little bit deeper into Pena himself. On the yr, his measurable energy is up. Whereas he’s not essentially considerably stronger, he’s hitting the ball arduous persistently extra typically, and if he’s traded a little bit little bit of contact to get to it, the trade has been productive so far:

Past hitting the ball more durable for a number of months, nonetheless, there’s little or no else statistically that means Pena has taken a step ahead. His fly ball fee, which has hovered round 30% for many of his profession, jumped to 41% in Amarillo this season however has dropped proper again all the way down to his profession norms in Reno. He’s not pulling the ball any extra typically than he has beforehand. His common exit velocities have dropped into the higher 80s since his promotion.

Watching Pena, issues don’t look particularly completely different both. He’s beginning together with his palms deeper, which shortens his load time, however he’s nonetheless attending to the identical spot, and it’s not like he was continuously behind final yr. His swing path continues to be steep as a default, with a little bit manipulation on pitches up within the zone. Actually, what stands out greater than the ability is that he’s in a position to make a good quantity of contact even when his swing isn’t within the zone all that lengthy. However that was true earlier than 2026 as effectively.

In the long term, I anticipate higher pitching will stress take a look at Pena’s contact means. He’s whiffing about 35% of the time on offspeed and spin, and his propensity to chase these pitches off the plate will restrict his means to each get on base and persistently make arduous contact. Nonetheless, it is a younger man holding his personal on the highest minor league stage. Whereas he’s not an awesome defender wherever, he can stand at a number of completely different locations, and the flexibility and energy mixture provides him a path to worth. Had been I doing the D-backs record now, I’d honor the manufacturing and stick him towards the underside of the primary part as an up-down man with a shot for a little bit extra if his strategy exceeds expectations. I’d grade him as a 35+ on our scale, and his software grades would appear to be this: