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F1MATHS: Does the boxplot from Suzuka continue to confirm Mercedes‘ dominant form?

April 1, 2026
in Formula 1
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By Balazs Szabo on 30 Mar 2026, 23:00

Mercedes entered the Japanese Grand Prix because the clear favorite after dominating qualifying, but each Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell instantly sophisticated their afternoon with sluggish begins.

What adopted, nevertheless, was an illustration of why Mercedes at present sits on the prime of Method 1’s aggressive hierarchy: Antonelli recovered, managed the race after the Security Automotive, and delivered a efficiency that the race‑tempo information confirms was probably the most full of the season to date.

A Poor Begin, a Excellent Reset

Antonelli’s gradual getaway allowed Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc to surge forward, with the McLaren driver controlling the early laps. However the turning level got here when Ollie Bearman crashed at Spoon Curve, triggering a Security Automotive.

As a result of Antonelli had not but pitted, the neutralisation allowed him to cease with out dropping observe place. As soon as the race restarted, the numbers present that he instantly established a tempo benefit nobody else might match.

Throughout the complete race distance, Antonelli produced a imply lap time of 93.87 seconds, the quickest of your complete area. Piastri, who completed second, averaged 94.11 seconds, that means Antonelli was 0.24 seconds per lap faster than the McLaren.

Russell’s imply lap time of 94.16 seconds positioned him an extra 0.05 seconds behind Piastri, whereas Leclerc’s 94.20‑second common meant the highest 4 have been separated by simply 0.33 seconds. This extraordinarily tight unfold is precisely why the race‑tempo chart highlights that three groups have been working inside roughly three‑tenths of a second of one another.

Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari: A Battle Measured in Tenths

The group‑efficiency rating reinforces this image. Mercedes set the reference tempo, whereas McLaren trailed by +0.24 seconds and Ferrari by +0.29 seconds on common. These margins clarify why Piastri might keep shut, why Leclerc might combat Russell, and why neither might meaningfully threaten Antonelli as soon as he was in clear air.

Russell’s underlying tempo — simply 0.29 seconds slower than Antonelli — reveals that Mercedes had the quickest package deal total, however his compromised begin and time spent in visitors prevented him from changing that tempo right into a podium.

The Midfield: Alpine Rise, Pink Bull Wrestle

The midfield order was equally revealing. Alpine emerged because the fourth‑quickest group with a mean deficit of +0.97 seconds, supported by Pierre Gasly’s imply lap time of 94.85 seconds. Pink Bull, surprisingly, ranked solely fifth with a group deficit of +1.59 seconds, mirrored in Max Verstappen’s 95.84‑second common — practically two full seconds per lap slower than Antonelli.

Haas and Audi have been tied at +1.74 seconds, which aligns with Nico Hülkenberg’s 95.58‑second imply and Gabriel Bortoleto’s 95.82‑second common. Racing Bulls adopted at +2.13 seconds, with Liam Lawson’s 95.62‑second tempo putting him within the thick of that group.

Williams, in the meantime, struggled considerably, working at +2.13 seconds, which matches Alex Albon’s 96.31‑second common. On the again, Cadillac and Aston Martin each recorded deficits of +3.99 seconds, with Valtteri Bottas and Fernando Alonso every averaging 97.87 seconds.

The hole from Antonelli’s 93.87 seconds to the slowest automobiles at 97.87 seconds amounted to a full 4 seconds per lap, illustrating the large aggressive unfold throughout the grid.


Tyre Technique: Laborious Tyre Dominance Shapes the Race

The tyre‑utilization information from Suzuka explains why the race unfolded with such strategic predictability. Lando Norris accomplished the longest stint of the afternoon by operating 37 laps on the C1 Laborious compound, demonstrating its sturdiness.

Throughout the sector, the Laborious tyre accounted for 609 laps, representing 55% of all race mileage. The C2 Medium was used for 493 laps, or 45% of the full.

The C3 Tender, in contrast, was nearly solely absent from the race, with solely 4 laps accomplished on it — all by Alex Albon — amounting to 0% of significant race utilization.

F1GP Japanearlier



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Tags: boxplotconfirmcontinueDominantF1MATHSFormMercedesSuzuka
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