FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: May 2, 2026

I don’t pay an excessive amount of consideration to the standings in April. I have a look at them, in fact, however that’s extra a matter of routine than a want to be taught one thing substantial. It’s onerous for groups to tug forward of the pack this early within the season, and I’d slightly not learn an excessive amount of into the truth that, say, the banged-up Blue Jays are a number of video games beneath .500, or that not one of the 5 groups within the NL Central has a dropping file. It takes time for this stuff to kind themselves out.

And but, upon checking the standings Friday morning, I discovered myself pondering the importance of what I noticed: particularly, that solely three groups within the American League had a successful file. After a dizzying 20 minutes of digging, I lifted my head from my laptop computer in a daze, questioning how on earth I ended up observing Baseball Reference’s playoff odds for the 14-18 White Sox. I feel seeing the quantity 16.1% is what snapped me out of my stupor. (For what it’s price, our Playoff Odds gave the South Siders a 2.2% likelihood to make the postseason, double their odds on Opening Day.) Anyway, about these three AL golf equipment above .500, the Yankees (20-11) had been anticipated to be among the finest groups in baseball, so their place atop the standings wasn’t stunning, however the robust begins of the Rays (18-12) and Athletics (17-14) caught me a bit off guard. I assumed Tampa Bay was destined for final place when the season started, and our Playoff Odds agreed, projecting the crew to complete with 79.7 wins and giving it a 28.9% shot to succeed in the postseason. Getting into Might, the Rays have solely added about two wins to their median projection (81.9), however they now have a forty five.6% likelihood of creating the playoffs. In the meantime, I believed the A’s could be higher this yr, however higher meant perhaps a third-place end within the AL West and an out of doors shot to snag the ultimate AL Wild Card spot. Nonetheless, I figured they had been extra seemingly nonetheless a yr or two away from true competition. Our preseason Playoff Odds tabbed them for 78 wins and a 21.4% shot on the playoffs. Now, they’re as much as a projected 81.3 wins and 43.1% odds. I nonetheless don’t assume both crew will play postseason baseball this yr; in accordance with each their Pythagorean and BaseRuns data, the Rays have performed extra like a .500 crew than one which’s on tempo to win 97 video games, whereas the A’s merely don’t have sufficient pitching. Bear in mind, it’s solely the beginning of Might. There’s a lot extra baseball nonetheless to be performed.

OK, that’s sufficient concerning the Rays and A’s on this week’s mailbag. At present, we’ll be answering your questions on how good Shohei Ohtani could be at basketball, whether or not James Wooden is likely one of the greatest lefty batters ever at hitting the ball the opposite means, which batter has probably the most hits in opposition to a pitcher with out recording an out, and what would occur if ZiPS forgot about 2020. However earlier than we get to all of that, I’d prefer to remind you that this mailbag is unique to FanGraphs Members. For those who aren’t but a Member and want to preserve studying, you’ll be able to join a Membership right here. It’s one of the simplest ways to each expertise the positioning and help our workers, and it comes with a bunch of different nice advantages. Additionally, for those who’d prefer to ask a query for an upcoming mailbag, ship me an e-mail at mailbag@fangraphs.com.