How Jacob Latz Is Missing Bats

PHILADELPHIA — Earlier than the Futures Recreation and All-Star Recreation, I requested a couple of gamers if there was anybody within the different dugout they had been both wanting ahead to going through or hoping to keep away from. Virtually everybody — most likely correctly, I have to concede — declined the chance to provide a possible World Collection opponent bulletin board materials.

However Jacob Latz bit.

“I’m making an attempt to think about who has my quantity up to now,” he mentioned. “I gave up a homer to [Bryce Harper] in 2024. Ohtani can be cool, however he’s not taking part in. [Corbin Carroll], really, I like going through him. He’s only a aggressive at-bat. However most likely Harper is the man I hope I don’t face. With the hometown Philly crowd, [if I give up a home run to him] that bell goes to be ringing for, like, three minutes.”

My curiosity being piqued, I went again and seemed up that house run from 2024. Latz was proper to concern the two-time NL MVP, as a result of this was a tank.

Final week’s All-Star Recreation was a little bit of a snoozer; other than an eighth-inning solo homer by Miguel Vargas, all of the scoring got here within the high of the primary inning. The Nationwide League didn’t advance a runner to second base all evening.

So when Sal Stewart labored a two-out stroll with the bases empty within the backside of the seventh, it constituted a high-leverage state of affairs by that recreation’s requirements. And AL supervisor John Schneider referred to as on Latz to retire a harmful left-handed hitter.

Harper and Carroll had been each within the recreation for the NL — and hitting back-to-back within the order, actually — however Latz may keep away from residing out his dream (and/or nightmare) state of affairs if he retired Luis Arraez.

I do know this was an exhibition recreation, however Latz is much from a family identify. How is that this man Schneider’s huge lefty weapon out of the bullpen?

Latz was good final yr; he posted a 2.84 ERA in 33 appearances for the Rangers, together with seven begins. However he outperformed his FIP by almost a run, and his xERA by a run and a 3rd. Out of 339 pitchers with 50 or extra innings, Latz was 251st in Ok-BB%. Not precisely an All-Star efficiency within the making.

Two years in the past, I wrote a few class of participant I referred to as “Token All-Star Relievers.” Each staff has to ship at the very least one All-Star, and never each staff has place participant at a place the place he’ll match on the roster. However nearly each staff has at the very least one reduction pitcher with a decent ERA who can carry the flag on the Midsummer Traditional. Generally that’s Jonathan Papelbon, Mason Miller, or Trevor Hoffman. Different instances, it’s Evan Meek or Ricky Bottalico.

This yr’s Rangers aren’t a foul staff; they had been really in first place and two video games over .500 on the break. However their solely beginning pitcher with an above-average ERA is Jacob deGrom, who’s not what he was 5 years in the past. Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager have been harm. Third baseman Josh Jung (.298/.367/.452 within the first half) had a good All-Star case, however I don’t know argue that he’s been higher than Vargas or Junior Caminero. A reliever is less complicated to suit on the squad.

And Latz has, legitimately, been terrific: a 1.57 ERA in 46 innings and 19 saves in 21 alternatives. He’s nonetheless not punching out prime Andrew Miller numbers, however he’s elevated his Ok% from 21.8% final yr to twenty-eight.1% this yr, and diminished his stroll fee from 10.6% to six.6%.

On the similar time, he’s getting nice outcomes on contact. He leads all certified relievers in infield fly ball fee by an enormous margin — a IFFB% of 29.5%, in comparison with 25.0% for second-place Rico Garcia — and has the most effective wOBACON of any pitcher with at the very least 30 innings pitched this yr.

I don’t assume a literal .151 BABIP is sustainable for anybody, however Latz is getting plenty of popups and weak contact. Greater than sufficient to justify a primary All-Star nod.

So how’s he doing it?

Let’s return to that at-bat with Arraez within the All-Star Recreation, as a result of it exhibits what was already working for Latz earlier than this yr. That is pitch no. 1.

Latz’s slider isn’t some unholy Statcast outlier by itself, nevertheless it strikes fairly straight left-to-right from the pitcher’s perspective. Versus his four-seamer, which is an unholy Statcast outlier.

This fastball isn’t enormously quick; a median of 94.7 mph isn’t particular warmth for a one-inning reliever anymore. It’s particular as a result of his over-the-top arm angle provides it huge backspin. Meaning it drops lower than a comparable fastball — 2.4 inches much less, on common, in keeping with Baseball Savant.

That’s a reasonably widespread strategy for a left-handed reliever; the king of the mega-backspin fastball is Alex Vesia. However Vesia sacrifices arm-side run to get that rise, whereas Latz produces above-average motion on each axes. There are solely two relievers within the recreation who get extra rise on their fastball than Latz, relative to comparable pitches, whereas nonetheless getting at the very least an inch extra horizontal motion than comparable: Dylan Lee and Erik Sabrowski. You would possibly keep in mind that each of these pitchers have achieved properly this yr, as Ben Clemens and I wrote concerning the pair on consecutive days in Could.

After Arraez took that get-me-over slider for strike one, Latz confirmed him a pair of four-seamers. One missed for a ball. The opposite dotted the highest of the zone, and Arraez swung by means of it for strike two.

By way of location and velocity, that’s just about the identical pitch Harper hit into the middle area arboretum two years earlier than, however Latz has made some tweaks since then.

“I obtained put in contact with a pitching coach this offseason,” he mentioned. “It’s the primary time I’ve labored hands-on with somebody since highschool, so he was capable of maintain me in test on a day-to-day foundation. As a result of typically we really feel like we’re doing the precise factor, nevertheless it may not be. The additional set of eyes helped lots.”

The additional offseason work wasn’t achieved with a return to the bullpen in mid; Latz was imagined to be a starter this yr. He was making an attempt to work on two issues: First, bettering the effectivity of his movement with a watch towards pitching extra innings, and second, engaged on his curveball.

The fastball-slider mixture labored simply high-quality in opposition to lefties final season. He allowed a .240 wOBA to same-handed batters in 2025. And even on a reliever’s workload, his four-seamer graded out as having the Nineteenth-best complete run worth in baseball, in keeping with Baseball Savant. The 2 names in entrance of him on that leaderboard had been Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler.

Righties, nevertheless, tagged Latz for a .316 wOBA, and hit higher than .300 in opposition to each his curveball and changeup. Clearly, a starter’s workload would demand a extra sturdy providing.

“[The curveball] was a pitch I simply by no means had confidence with, and now I’m throwing it with two strikes,” Latz mentioned. It’s nonetheless his fourth-most-used pitch, as a result of he throws it nearly completely to righties, however opponents nonetheless haven’t recorded a success off it this season; they’re 0-for-15 with 10 strikeouts and an xBA of .036. Latz has held right-handed hitters to a .097/.167/.183 line general this yr. That’s really higher, by 40 factors of wOBA, than he’s achieved in opposition to lefties.

The work on his supply has paid off much more.

“I attempted to get my arm in a little bit little bit of a greater spot when it comes to being extra environment friendly, after which it finally led to higher keep on the fastball,” Latz mentioned. “After which I believe it’s additionally led to hiding the ball a little bit bit higher. I used to get lengthy and rather less misleading, the place as this yr [the ball is] simply hidden inside my physique or my ear a little bit bit higher.”

Latz is getting on high of the ball extra this yr, however the distinction is minute — three levels in common angle, with perhaps an inch’s value of change in launch level in every route. Latz mentioned he considers two to a few inches in extension to be a major change, and one to a few inches of vertical launch top.

“However we’re wanting extra for consistency than a change per se,” he mentioned. “That wasn’t essentially by design, nevertheless it was extra by making an attempt to be extra environment friendly.”

The most important change in pitch motion is in Latz’s changeup, which now has greater than six inches much less vertical drop than a comparable pitch. Meaning he can toss something with very comparable induced motion to his fastball, however as much as 10 miles an hour slower. He nearly by no means throws these left-on-left (simply seven within the common season up to now this yr), however he went up and in on Arraez in an try and get strike three.

It nearly labored. Arraez chased and was miles out in entrance, however he obtained the bat on the ball and fouled it off.

Arraez handed on a 1-2 fastball off the plate, however when Latz went again to the properly and introduced the ball down barely, the Giants second baseman couldn’t resist.

Latz obtained two whiffs on six pitches from the most effective contact hitter of this decade, a man who has swung and missed simply 58 instances on 1,567 regular-season pitches in his profession. It wasn’t Harper, and it wasn’t actually a strain state of affairs, nevertheless it was day on the workplace.