It’s a Good Day To Be PCA’s CPA

Late final night time, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Cubs and star heart fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong had reached an settlement on a long-term contract extension. That deal, price $115 million over six years, retains certainly one of baseball’s hottest younger stars within the fold by 2032.

This extension, the biggest ever for a participant with so little service time, begins in 2027, buys out two of Crow-Armstrong’s free agent years, and consists of escalators that might improve the worth to $133 million. However shockingly, (and to the immense reduction of these of us who’re nonetheless parsing the inscrutable Julio Rodríguez extension), it doesn’t embrace any possibility years. No matter occurs, Crow-Armstrong can nonetheless hit free company after his age-30 season.

Crow-Armstrong, who turns 24 tomorrow, has already performed 293 extremely productive video games within the majors, wherein he’s socked 41 dwelling runs, stolen 64 bases, and roped in untold highlight-reel catches in heart subject. Crow-Armstrong is a dynamic athlete, the likes of which the American youth baseball setup often loses to soccer, with a compellingly flashy type of play. This dude was born to be a star; the longer he performs on an excellent group in a giant market, the warmer he’s going to get.

I as soon as wrote that the younger Fernando Tatis Jr. made a number of errors on the sphere, however not from an absence of focus or effort; quite, he performed like he was testing the boundaries of the game, as if he believed limits have been for different individuals. Crow-Armstrong performs that method too, and when a participant like that falls into your lap, you do no matter it takes to maintain him round.

Baseball groups run on manufacturing, not vibes, and “he’s so cool” doesn’t precisely fly as a purpose to provide a ballplayer $115 million. The excellent news is that Crow-Armstrong is genuinely actually good. He led an excellent Cubs group in WAR final yr, and with 31 homers, 35 steals, and plus-17.5 protection at a premium up-the-middle place, he’s an influence participant in each section of the sport.

He’s, nonetheless, not an ideal participant. Acknowledging that gamers who publish 5 WAR or extra of their age-23 seasons often go on to lengthy and productive careers, there’s extra uncertainty — for good and unwell — round PCA than most gamers who match that description.

For that purpose, I’ve written about this man quite a bit over his transient profession, so I’ll attempt to hold the evaluate of earlier materials as transient as attainable.

In brief, Crow-Armstrong was inbuilt a lab to be overhyped as a prospect: Elite athlete with a memorable little bit of trivia in his private bio. First-round pick of a expertise manufacturing facility highschool, turned down a scholarship to Vandy to play for the Mets, who then let him go in a brutal commerce that led to a nightmarish meltdown. (Each “brutal” and “nightmarish” even by the Mets’ requirements.)

On the sphere, the stuff Crow-Armstrong does effectively is each thrilling and straightforward to identify, whereas his deficiencies aren’t obvious on a spotlight reel. Plus-plus velocity, power, energy… however the hit device and batting eye have been then, and at the moment are, relative weaknesses. Simple sufficient to identify should you can see the .287 on-base proportion he posted final yr; much less simple to elucidate to the discuss radio caller or the loudmouth on the bar.

Any dialogue of Crow-Armstrong’s recreation has to begin with the glove; this has been particular all through his profession. However quick guys with plus-plus protection in heart subject are pretty frequent, and the distinction between Cristian Pache and prime Lorenzo Cain may be vanishingly small.

Since arriving within the majors, PCA has made regular enhancements on this entrance. Loads of nice defensive heart fielders have put up just a few All-Star-level seasons with a slap-hitting, ground-and-pound strategy, however that’s by no means been his recreation. He’s at all times been pretty robust and hit a good variety of balls within the air.

Crow-Armstrong has made three adjustments to his recreation (or possibly one change, with three distinct results) that allowed him to evolve from Zoomer Kevin Kiermaier to American J-Rod.

First: He’s swinging the bat tougher. Crow-Armstrong’s common bat velocity jumped from 70.6 mph in 2024 to 72.7 mph in 2025, and his fast-swing charge improved from 8.0% to twenty-eight.5%. Swing tougher and also you’ll hit the ball tougher; Crow-Armstrong’s EV90 climbed from 101.8 mph in his first full season to 105.2 in his second.

That’s respectable, however I don’t know if I’d name it plus energy or something; Crow-Armstrong’s EV90 in 2025 was 81st out of 145 certified hitters. That’s the place the opposite two adjustments are available. As a rookie, PCA had a 79.2% Z-Contact%. Something beneath 80% in that mark is survivable, but it surely’s laborious to thrive in that vary with out really elite energy. In 2025, he raised his in-zone contact charge to 83.8%.

Third: He’s getting absolutely the most out of what contact he makes. Probably the most useful batted balls, on the whole, are hit within the air and to the pull facet. In 2024, Crow-Armstrong put 19.3% of his batted balls in that route, which is above common, even good. In 2025, that quantity was 30.2%, which was the seventh-highest work out of 251 gamers on Baseball Savant’s leaderboard.

Crow-Armstrong hit 31 dwelling runs final yr as a result of he acquired absolutely the most out of his plate self-discipline and quality-of-contact numbers. Add within the protection and the baserunning, and I believe this may actually be the very best all-around baseball participant you might have with a 4.5% stroll charge and a .247 batting common.

However he’s nonetheless a participant with a .247 batting common and a 4.5% stroll charge. Or, to make use of the extra legible determine I discussed above, a .287 OBP. Final yr, Crow-Armstrong made extra outs per plate look than Nick Castellanos, Lenyn Sosa, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Is it attainable to be a franchise participant if that’s true? We’ll discover out.

And that’s the large query going ahead.

On one hand, Crow-Armstrong is already a five-win participant who’s made large strides in a short large league profession. He’s proven the capability to study and adapt on the main league stage, which bodes effectively for his future growth. Once more, he’s youthful than 15 of the 110 prospects on our preseason Prime 100 checklist.

However the path to sustained superstardom with a 4.5% stroll charge is steep, slim, and stuffed with snakes. I discussed this final offseason, simply earlier than one other younger star heart fielder, Jackson Merrill, parlayed a five-win season into his personal nine-figure extension.

Merrill is nowhere close to pretty much as good a runner or defender as Crow-Armstrong is, however he’s a much better hitter total. And quite than taking a step ahead in Yr 1 of his new contract, Merrill’s Z-Contact% dropped into that dreaded mid-to-upper-70s vary, his batting common fell 28 factors, and his wRC+ dropped from 130 to 116. An ankle harm hobbled the Padres’ younger star, and restricted him to 115 video games; that contributed to his drop from 5.3 WAR to three.0, however even on a per-game foundation, Merrill wasn’t pretty much as good in 2025 as he had been in 2024.

That’s the chance: {That a} drop in bat velocity or contact charge, or an adjustment from opposing pitchers, may ship the entire home of playing cards tumbling down. Perhaps much more so for PCA than for Merrill, as a result of he’s already picked off a lot low-hanging fruit to get up to now as a hitter. If something, I’d be extra cautious to increase him due to this, as a result of his years of peak athleticism are already beneath group management.

Or he may add a bit of extra muscle, study to attract the occasional stroll, and switch into Ken Griffey Jr. Greatest to lock him up now, simply in case that occurs.