Final Preventing Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho will sq. off TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024) at UFC Vegas 96 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Will we see a altering of the guard second in tonight’s primary occasion? At 40 years of age, it’s frankly exceptional how match and harmful Cannonier stays. He was in spitting distance of a title shot only a couple months in the past given his pretty current win over Sean Strickland, however a controversial loss to Nassourdine Imavov ruined these plans. Conversely, Borralho is using a six-fight win streak into this main alternative. At 31 years of age, Borralho is a recent face within the Middleweight combine, and that is his alternative to solidify himself as a real title menace.
Let’s take a better take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:
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Cannonier vs. Borralho Betting Odds
Jared Cannonier victory: +205
Jared Cannonier through TKO/KO/DQ: +400
Jared Cannonier through submission: +2200
Jared Cannonier through choice: +550
Caio Borralho victory: -250
Caio Borralho through TKO/KO/DQ: +350
Caio Borralho through submission: +300
Caio Borralho through choice: +165
Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook
How Cannonier Wins
Cannonier is among the higher sprawl-and-brawl fighters at Middleweight. The previous Heavyweight is understood for his agility and motion, which go a good distance in lining up huge energy punch connections.
Avoiding the takedown is the secret right here. Borralho is a superb grappler and fairly good kickboxer, however he doesn’t have the ability or fluidity of Cannonier. If Cannonier can drive a hanging match, he ought to maintain a bonus on the ft.
I’d prefer to see affected person strain from “Killa Gorilla.” Borralho is sort of good at reactive pictures, however Cannonier has the vary and arise ability to trace him down with out over-reaching within the course of. Feints and false begins will assist right here, however Cannonier must also be seeking to capitalize on Borralho’s movement-based model. If he can present punches after which kick the path leg of his transferring opponent, it’ll assist gradual the Brazilian down.
A extra stationary Borralho will likely be pressured into the pocket with Cannonier … and he received’t fare effectively there.
How Borralho Wins
Borralho is a well-rounded and tactical Middleweight contender. He makes use of good motion, sturdy kicks, and correct counter punches to manage the circulation of the struggle on the ft, nevertheless it’s on the mat the place the Brazilian tends to essentially dominate.
A technique or one other, Borralho has to pull Cannonier to the ground. Traditionally, that’s a troublesome activity, however circumstances have modified a bit. At the beginning, we simply noticed Cannonier fatigue from wrestling with Imavov. Secondly, the struggle was put collectively on pretty short-notice and Cannonier simply fought in June, that means he hasn’t been given a full camp to organize.
Borralho can not exhaust himself within the course of, however prolonged wrestling exchanges appear prone to fatigue his 40-year-old foe. It’d profit Borralho to wrestle arduous early, after which when the 2 break aside, he’ll be coping with a slower and fewer harmful Cannonier. In that case, he can probably strike with Cannonier simply wonderful and use his motion to keep up an edge in quantity.
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Picture by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs
Cannonier vs. Borralho Prediction
Three months in the past, I decide Cannonier and not using a second thought. The match up undoubtedly favors him stylistically. Borralho’s kickboxing will be irritating, however he’s a lot much less harmful on the ft than Cannonier, who has but to be held down and managed to a lose at 185 lbs.
The issue is that Imavov struggle. Cannonier slowed down in a approach I had by no means seen at Middleweight. It is a five-round struggle versus a well-conditioned and proficient up-and-comer practically a decade youthful. Barring an early knockout win, Cannonier can not afford to fatigue.
The query is that this: am I overreacting to the Imavov efficiency or is Cannonier genuinely on his approach out? It wasn’t that way back that Cannonier pulverized Marvin Vettori in a career-best efficiency, in any case. I’d decide that Cannonier over each Borralho I’ve seen to this point.
Finally, it’s arduous to argue with momentum. Borralho is getting into his prime and using a superb win streak, whereas Cannonier is attempting to keep away from tumbling down the ladder. I anticipate Borralho to stay a participant at 185-pounds for years to come back, and that begins tonight.
Prediction: Borralho through choice (+165)
Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC Vegas 96 struggle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET, earlier than the principle card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN/ESPN+).
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