Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Final Preventing Championship (UFC) Strawweight rivals Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas will rematch TONIGHT (Sat., Jan. 11, 2025) at UFC Vegas 101 from UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Dern’s standing as a contender is difficult. She’s positively improved through the years, however the identical points concurrently proceed to weigh her down and value her vital fights. She positively has the expertise to battle for the belt, but producing constant Prime 10 wins stays a wrestle. Ribas is in the same scenario, and she or he provides within the complication of steadily bouncing between weight courses. That’s a troublesome method to construct momentum even when profitable persistently. After dropping consecutive Flyweight fights, maybe she’s now been satisfied to remain at 115-pounds for good. Both means, the victor of this important occasion match up shall be in first rate place to construct in direction of a title shot in 2025.

Let’s take a better take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Dern vs. Ribas 2 Betting Odds

Mackenzie Dern victory: +180
Mackenzie Dern by way of TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
Mackenzie Dern by way of submission: +450
Mackenzie Dern by way of resolution: +450
Amanda Ribas victory: -218
Amanda Ribas by way of TKO/KO/DQ: +600
Amanda Ribas by way of submission: +1000
Amanda Ribas by way of resolution: +115
Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook

How Dern Wins

If nothing else, Dern is definitely a enjoyable fighter. Gutsy and hard, the jiu-jitsu ace typically finally ends up throwing warning to the wind when issues aren’t going her means. The mixture of a heavy proper hand and completely deadly grappling signifies that she’s at all times in a battle, and it makes for dramatic moments.

There are two avenues to success for Dern. The primary is the obvious path, although it failed of their first battle six years in the past: take down and submit the Brazilian. On the ground, Dern is the most effective within the division by a rustic mile, so she will be able to dominate this battle if in a position to take down Riba.

That’s a giant “if,” nonetheless. Ribas is sort of good on the sprawl-and-brawl technique, and it’s not like she’s a slouch on the ground herself. A single takedown is way from a assured submission even with Dern’s canvas credentials. The opposite path is to place a giant ol’ overhand on Ribas’ jawline. At this level, it’s pretty recognized that Ribas stands slightly too tall, isn’t that sturdy, and doesn’t transfer her head all that a lot.

Ideally, Dern provides herself the most effective alternative to win by making an attempt each. If she’s pressuring behind her jab, capturing for double legs, and utilizing the takedown feint to fireside her overhand, she stands a stable probability at scoring revenge.

How Ribas Wins

Ribas is a enjoyable fighter too! The Judo and jiu-jitsu black belt is sort of scrappy on her ft, a frequently attention-grabbing mixture of harmful and weak. Ribas is a troublesome buyer as properly, having gained greater than couple bouts by way of grit and conditioning after tough begins.

Within the first battle, Ribas made it look pretty simple. Her grappling background was sufficient to repulse Dern’s subpar takedown makes an attempt, and on the ft, she was the extra fluid and lively striker. The one concern right here is that Dern’s wrestling and punching have improved by some measure, and Ribas has to proceed to claim her dominance no matter that change.

It’s all going to come back all the way down to footwork and distance. Ribas is the higher kicker and sharper straight puncher. If she will be able to preserve a little bit of vary, she’ll see Dern’s diving takedowns and easy prices coming. Any time Dern is ready to shut the gap, the scenario grows a bit extra dicey, even when Ribas stays able to competing within the clinch as properly.

Dern vs. Ribas 2 Prediction

I don’t wish to fake like Dern has fully reinvented herself because the first battle six years in the past. Between the 2, nonetheless, it feels as if she has improved extra, whereas Ribas was already a extra full product on the time. Dern’s work with Parillo has positively sharpened her palms (if not her protection), whereas they have been an absolute legal responsibility in 2019. Dern’s wrestling continues to be fairly inconsistent, however from time to time no less than, she’ll exhibit a pleasant blast double that was completely absent from her sport within the first battle.

Are these changes sufficient to make the distinction over 5 rounds? I’m keen to take a chance and say sure, Dern finds the chin or takedown sufficient to sway the distinction. A part of my reasoning is Ribas struggles to make the Strawweight restrict and has been noticeably less difficult to rattle by strikes at that class.

Since neither fighter is a defensive wizard, a scrap appears probably. It’s clear who holds the ability and sturdiness edge, and I’m unsure Ribas’ technical superiority on the ft will matter if she’s dizzy and gradual to react.

Prediction: Dern by way of resolution

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