Basketball is a numbers recreation. So, earlier than the Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic playoff collection, let’s dive into the numbers that would point out the totally different tipping factors. With 82 video games within the books, we will establish clear developments and identities for the 2 groups. Due to this fact, to anticipate what the collection may appear to be, listed below are 5 metrics that would outline the matchup.
Orlando’s mid-range recreation
The Celtics’ protection has been the most effective within the NBA at limiting opponents’ eFG% during the last 4 years. They’ve performed it by forcing groups to take inefficient photographs. Certainly, the Celtics are permitting solely 28.5% of photographs on the rim (4th finest) and simply 8.7% of photographs from the nook (1st within the NBA). By taking away the 2 best zones, the Celtics have turn out to be an elite protection.
Nevertheless, the Orlando Magic aren’t a typical offense. Round Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, they’ve constructed an assault with a variety of mid-range photographs. These are normally those you don’t wish to take, those the Celtics attempt to pressure you into, however this time may be totally different.
The Magic have the Sixth-highest lengthy mid-range quantity throughout the NBA and can most likely attempt to construct on that to disrupt the Celtics’ protection… however can it actually work? The Magic are taking pictures 40% from the lengthy mid-range zone, which is under common and doesn’t appear significantly threatening for Boston.
If the Magic’s stars go berserk for a recreation, the Celtics’ technique of leaving the mid-range open may pressure them to adapt and even value them a recreation. However there’s no likelihood that method can be sustainable sufficient to win the collection. Making a variety of mid-range photographs gained’t be sufficient to fill the hole between the 2 groups.
Boston’s offensive rebounds
The Magic aren’t nearly as good because the Celtics at impacting opponents’ eFG%, however they’re among the finest groups in the case of turning a miss into a brand new possession. However, when the Celtics play large with two facilities, they work exhausting to increase possessions—particularly with Luke Kornet on the court docket.
How will this translate in the course of the collection? If the Celtics have an evening—or a few video games—with poor taking pictures luck, will they be capable of win the shot margin battle by offensive rebounds? Since Orlando performs large with two tall ball handlers and really sturdy facilities, some video games may flip right into a bodily battle below the basket.
We may even see a battle between two groups enjoying with two facilities, because the Magic logged over 500 possessions with Goga Bitadze and Wendell Carter Jr. on the court docket. Throughout these minutes, the Magic have been the most effective group at stopping offensive rebounds. The few video games the place the Celtics’ taking pictures success disappears will probably be intriguing to investigate. How will the Magic capitalize? What is going to the Celtics do to compensate for poor taking pictures luck?
Caring for the ball
The Celtics are the second-best group at caring for the ball—until they’re enjoying towards the Orlando Magic.
All through the season, Boston managed to restrict its turnover price to 12%, trailing solely the Thunder. Nevertheless, towards Orlando, that price rose to 16%, which might rank twenty ninth out of 30 groups. This could possibly be problematic on each side of the ground, because the Celtics have struggled to restrict shot makes an attempt off live-ball turnovers.
Within the half-court, the Magic doesn’t stand a lot of an opportunity towards Boston. But when they’re in a position to pressure extra turnovers than traditional, they may flip their elite protection right into a good-enough transition offense to push Boston to its limits. That could possibly be sufficient for Orlando to steal a recreation, however the Celtics are deep sufficient to search out methods round such aggressive protection.
Attending to the road
The deeper you dive into the info, the extra this Celtics vs. Magic collection looks like a matchup of polar opposites. The Magic are the second-best group at producing free throws, however twenty ninth in limiting opponent free throws. However, the Celtics are the most effective group at taking away free throws, however lifeless final at attending to the road themselves.
Might that change in the course of the collection? We noticed final 12 months that the Celtics’ drive quantity elevated drastically from the common season to the playoffs as they adjusted to matchups. With the Magic’s incapacity to guard the rim with out fouling, may the Celtics turn out to be extra aggressive within the paint and enhance their presence on the rim?
Celtics three-point quantity
The matchup retains getting extra fascinating, and three-point quantity may be the most important battle—the one which dictates how the collection performs out. The Magic are the most effective group at taking away the three-point shot due to their aggressive defensive protection and the size of their defenders. Towards Orlando, groups try simply 35% of their photographs from past the arc, far under the league common of 39%.
Nevertheless, they’re going through the Celtics—the one group taking greater than 50% of their photographs from deep. However towards the Magic, that quantity drops to 40%, simply above league common. How will Boston adapt to a protection that may neutralize their most popular taking pictures zone?
All the Magic’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies talked about above lead me to imagine that the Celtics may look very totally different from the common season throughout this matchup. Joe Mazzulla’s group may be way more aggressive on the rim within the coming weeks and could possibly be much less oriented towards the three-point shot than traditional.
