Taylor Ward? More Like Taylor Walk

Taylor Ward has made an enormous league profession out of lifting and pulling the ball. Drafted within the first spherical in 2015, he didn’t discover a full-time position within the majors till 2022, however he ran with the job as quickly as he received it. Regardless of unexciting bat velocity, Ward persistently ambushed fastballs and tucked them over the left subject fence. He clobbered 98 dwelling runs from 2022-25 for the Angels, posted a 119 wRC+, and racked up 11 WAR over the span, one of many staff’s finest gamers. Then he received traded to the Orioles this winter with just one 12 months left till free company, and determined to fully remake his sport.

I’m solely partially kidding. See, Ward may need made his identify as a 25-homer-a-year kind, however he’s deserted that type fully in Baltimore. He’s launched solely three lengthy balls this season, and his barrel price, common exit velocity, and fly ball price are all profession lows. His common bat velocity is down 1.5 miles an hour, now within the fifth percentile league-wide. Even when he does get the ball within the air, he’s pulling it at a career-low price; solely 19.4% of his elevated contact goes to left subject. That’s why his remoted energy has declined from .192 as an Angel to .103 as an Oriole. And oh yeah, he’s having top-of-the-line seasons of his profession.

That’s proper – Ward may not be hitting for energy, however he’s getting on base at a preposterous clip. His 18.8% stroll price is third in baseball. His .403 OBP is fifth. He’s not barely surviving on some bizarre BABIP spike or doing something visibly unsustainable. He simply began swinging slower and making extra contact, kind of, and the outcomes have been downright unimaginable; his 126 wRC+ could be the second-best mark of his profession if he can maintain it the remainder of the season.

Generally, swing velocity is downstream of what has truly modified a couple of participant, or it adjustments due to components outdoors of his management. Totally different counts and completely different opposition each invite completely different swings. For those who see a ton of breaking balls, or face a ton of two-strike counts, you would possibly alter your method in ways in which present up within the uncooked common. However that’s not what Ward has carried out. He’s swinging slower throughout the board, in each scenario. He’s taking quick swings – 75 mph or tougher – at half the speed that he’d achieved in his profession earlier than this 12 months. His swing has shortened, he’s squaring the ball up extra, and his bat path is flatter and deeper.

I’m not all that stunned that Ward is able to doing this. In any case, even when he was cranking 25 homers a 12 months, he was doing it by way of guile and intent. Ward has by no means had even common bat velocity. As a prospect, he was a hit-over-power kind. He was in order that adept at shifting the bat by way of the zone that he adopted the Alex Bregman/Isaac Paredes mannequin, assembly pitches early to each elevate them and goal down the left subject foul line. Out of 116 profession homers, solely 11 have gone to the other subject. Reverse-field homers are the area of huge energy hitters, and Ward was by no means that.

Along with his wonderful bat management, Ward has at all times had an excellent eye on the plate. He not often chases – his profession chase price is 21.6%, top-of-the-line marks in baseball since his debut. Regardless of promoting out, in his personal means, to hit dwelling runs, he’s at all times made contact at a barely above-average price, too. He’s simply kicked each of these developments into overdrive this 12 months. He’s swinging at solely 12.4% of pitches outdoors the zone this 12 months, the very best mark in baseball by greater than three proportion factors. His contact price has exploded increased, from 78% to 84%. His zone contact is up above 90%, top-of-the-line charges within the league. In different phrases, he’s changed into a premium contact hitter with an excellent eye, the Steven Kwan starter pack.

For those who develop into extra discerning, which means fewer swings and infrequently later selections – the longer you see the pitch earlier than beginning your swing, the better it’s to establish. Beginning later results in decrease recorded swing speeds, as a result of a late swing impacts the ball earlier in your swing path, earlier than your bat has had time to rise up to full velocity. Ward’s common contact was angled to the pull aspect, and with a steep upward bat path. Now he’s catching it earlier in his swing path (however in a while the pitch’s trajectory to the plate), with a flatter assault angle, and spraying it the opposite means.

A brand new function at Baseball Savant shows this particularly effectively for fastballs:

That’s Ward in 2025. You’ll be able to learn this from left to proper as follows: He usually caught the ball on the barrel of the bat, was on time in opposition to fastballs, and hit them from ever so barely beneath. Naturally, he tended to be earlier in opposition to breaking balls and offspeed pitches, what with the best way time and velocity work together. That was his plan: elevate, be on time or early, accumulate dingers. Right here’s Ward in 2026, which appears fairly completely different to me:

He’s nonetheless catching the ball on the barrel, however on common, he’s making contact meaningfully in a while a pitch’s trajectory to the plate this 12 months; in different phrases, he’s catching it earlier than his bat will get parallel to the plate, and hitting it the opposite means. He’s additionally beneath the ball a bit much less, although he’s nonetheless not pounding it straight into the bottom or something. As you would possibly anticipate, he’s out in entrance much less ceaselessly on secondaries this 12 months, too. His swing is simply tailor-made otherwise than it was final 12 months.

There’s a robust relationship between swinging extra slowly and hitting the ball on the candy spot of the bat extra ceaselessly. Ward’s squared-up proportion, already a energy, is now within the 93rd percentile. Regardless of swinging meaningfully slower, he’s producing higher than ever on line drives, and that’s whilst he’s posting his lowest barrel price on them. He’s not hitting line-drive dwelling runs anymore, however he’s nonetheless hitting the ball a lot laborious to rack up doubles. He’s additionally by no means had the next batting common, realized or anticipated, on liners.

Need one other means of taking a look at it? How about our Squared-Up Explorer? Ward’s tradeoff is obvious right here:

Hitting fewer balls at ideally suited dwelling run angles is clearly not, effectively, ideally suited, however take a look at all these big bubbles in line drive territory, round 10 levels launch angle. That’s truly a wonderful pairing together with his slower swings; in case you’re going to hit fly balls, it’s vital to hit them laborious sufficient to go away the park. For those who’re going to punch pitches at slower swing speeds, it’s higher to hit low line drives.

Even with these advantages, although, it’s not like this tradeoff is sweet in a vacuum. Ward is operating a .364 wOBA on contact this 12 months, down 50 factors from 2025. His anticipated slugging on contact is the bottom of his profession by a mile. He’s truly posting below-average outcomes when he places the ball in play this 12 months, a far cry from his prior kind. It’s all effectively and good to speak about pairing your swing together with your batted ball combine, however the math remains to be fairly clear: swing slower, worsen outcomes on contact.

The explanation that is all working is the near-20% stroll price, clearly. That many walks – and a markedly lowered strikeout price, too – pays for lots of weak contact. And Ward is searching these walks, make no mistake. When he’s forward within the rely, he swings solely 31.1% of the time. That’s ridiculously low. Kwan is the one main leaguer who swings much less ceaselessly in these conditions. It’s not simply that Ward doesn’t chase; it’s additionally that he swings at lower than half the strikes he sees. He’s solely swinging at 57% of fastballs proper down the guts of the plate when he’s forward within the rely.

Once more, that is on objective. These fastballs are much less interesting once you aren’t swinging as laborious. And now that he’s making way more contact, accepting an additional strike is much less punishing. It’s troublesome to strike Ward out, even with two strikes. He’s struck out on solely 16% of the two-strike pitches he’s seen this 12 months, which is foolish; he was at 20.5% for his profession earlier than this 12 months. That’s a large distinction. Earlier than this season, his profession price was within the thirty sixth percentile, which implies that he struck out extra ceaselessly than all however 36% of batters when he reached two-strike counts. Now he’s within the ninetieth percentile, an elite contact hitter with a very good eye.

Ward’s present manufacturing is hardly a steady equilibrium, although. I hold evaluating him to a wide range of affected person, high-contact hitters like Kwan, however none of these guys are strolling 18% of the time. Luis Arraez, the exemplar of this type, barely walks in any respect. Kwan does, nevertheless it’s regardless of pitchers completely flooding the zone in an try to drive him to hit his means on. Ward remains to be benefiting from pitchers staying away from him. He’s seeing fewer pitches within the zone than that group of comparables early within the rely. He’s barely seeing extra pitches within the zone than league common. That may’t presumably final. As the brand new e book on him will get out, Ward should make a unique adjustment – maybe mixing within the occasional ambush swing that he used to take action effectively, maybe merely specializing in retaining his swing geared for line drives in order that the lower in walks comes with an uptick in doubles.

No matter how this finally ends up, although, Ward has taught me one thing useful about baseball with this huge change. I used to suppose that new concepts and techniques have been strict upgrades, the clear finest means for gamers to enhance. Wish to get higher at hitting? Carry and pull. Wish to get higher at pitching? Throw your fastball at a shallower method angle, or add extra vertical break to it. The gamers who weren’t doing these issues, in my thoughts, have been quickly to get left behind.

However that’s probably not how baseball works, and Ward is a good object lesson in what I imply. The key sauce to Taylor Ward’s sport wasn’t lifting and pulling the ball. That was simply how his elite bat management expressed itself. Likewise, the key to his sport now isn’t simply the walks – it’s his capacity to pair an excellent batting eye with a brand new swing to create loads of contact and loads of advantageous counts and free bases. Certain, some methods are higher than others. Certain, a mismatch between method and expertise goes to result in failure most of the time. However anybody can say “elevate it and pull it,” similar to anybody can say “take pitches, make contact, and stroll.” The gamers on the sphere nonetheless must do it – and proper now, Ward is totally doing it.