The 2026 Replacement-Level Killers: First Base & Second Base

At the moment, we now have the primary of a number of Killers two-fers, with a pair of lists protecting the correct aspect of the infield. Whereas nonetheless specializing in groups that meet the free definition of a contender (Playoff Odds of at the very least 10%, a criterion that 22 of the 30 groups meet) and which have gotten about 0.6 WAR or much less out of a place to this point (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve additionally integrated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an extra perspective. That will recommend that a few of these groups will clear the bar by a major margin, besides, I’ve included them right here as a result of their efficiency at that spot is price a glance. All statistics are by July 12.

Diamondbacks

Ildemaro Vargas was sensational early within the season, opening with a 24-game hitting streak (27 video games for those who depend the tail finish of final season) and batting .378/.398/.689 (195 wRC+) with six residence runs by the top of April. It was a totally surprising heater provided that in components of 9 earlier seasons, the 34-year-old journeyman had managed only a 75 wRC+. Certain sufficient, Vargas shortly cooled off. Since Might, he’s hit for a 40 wRC+ (.201/.259/.254) with only one homer and a 2.3% barrel charge, and since mid-June, he’s been bumped again to a utility function.

In the meantime, the Diamondbacks have jettisoned a few first base alternate options. Carlos Santana, who signed a one-year, $2 million cope with the workforce in early February, and who strained his groin after taking part in simply eight video games — thus opening the door for Vargas — was designated for project in late June and is now within the Braves group. Pavin Smith — the seventh decide of the 2017 draft, and a reliable DH/first base possibility for stretches over the earlier two seasons when he wasn’t injured — was DFA’d this previous weekend after hitting simply .141/.236/.192 in 89 plate appearances. Since chopping ties with Smith, the workforce has been utilizing Tim Tawa, a 27-year-old utilityman with a profession 76 wRC+, at first. That’s a stopgap answer, and as Arizona’s main league-worst 0.1-WAR rest-of-season projection suggests, this can be a workforce that completely must provide you with a greater various if it’s going to navigate the NL Wild Card free-for-all.

Guardians

Final yr, in his first full main league season, Kyle Manzardo slugged 27 homers and hit a decent .234/.313/.455 (113 wRC+) whereas spending extra time at DH (84 video games) than at first base (56 video games), ending with 1.2 WAR. This yr, he’s spent extra time at first (68 video games) than DH (17 video games), and has hit a limp .215/.310/.359 (91 wRC+) with simply 10 homers and -0.2 WAR. His strikeout charge has spiked from 25.4% to 31.0% as his efficiency in opposition to breaking balls has fallen off the desk. Final yr, he hit .271 and slugged .561 in opposition to curves, sliders, sweepers and such, averaging a 91.6 mph exit velocity when he made contact with these pitches and whiffing on 34.7% when he didn’t. This yr, he’s right down to hitting .167 and slugging .333 in opposition to breaking balls, with a mean exit velo of simply 86.4 mph and a 35.2% whiff charge in opposition to them. His efficiency in opposition to offspeed pitches has slipped, as nicely.

However Manzardo is simply a part of the issue. Righty-swinging platoon companion Rhys Hoskins has hit simply .178/.316/.364 (95 wRC+) whereas taking part in brutal protection (-4 DRS, -4 FRV in simply 343 1/3 innings). On June 13, in a sport the place the Guardians misplaced Chase DeLauter, Angel Martínez, and José Ramírez to accidents, they even caught Hoskins in left area, a place he hadn’t performed since 2018, when he had -18 DRS and -18 FRV. Certain sufficient, he was a run beneath common by each metrics in simply three innings, serving to to push him to -0.4 WAR general (that left area contribution isn’t counted right here, to be clear). The 33-year-old slugger has the majors’ highest pop-up charge at 20%, only a .312 anticipated slugging share, and a career-high 31.6% strikeout charge. Did I point out he’s hitting simply .139/.273/.329 (70 wRC+) in opposition to lefties, which falls a wee bit wanting the mashing element of his major job? A greater platoon complement for Manzardo can’t be a couple of or two cellphone calls away.

Tigers

Since reaching the majors in 2022, Spencer Torkelson, the no. 1 decide of the 2020 draft, has alternated unhealthy seasons which have earned him refresher programs in Triple-A with serviceable ones which have provided fleeting hope that he might reside as much as his potential. This yr falls someplace in the midst of that spectrum, in that he has but to be exiled to Toledo whereas alternating good months with unhealthy ones en path to a .208/.305/.413 (101 wRC+) line. Whereas his 14.3% barrel charge represents a profession excessive, so does his 32.9% strikeout charge; the latter is about six share factors above his profession mark. On the opposite aspect of the ball, his -7 FRV is already a profession low, and his -8 DRS is on tempo to shatter his earlier low of -10, set in 2023. He’s netted 0.0 WAR.

That protection is unhealthy sufficient to be DH-caliber, and whereas the Tigers might most likely park him there — I’ll be checking in on Kerry Carpenter throughout this sequence, too — at this level, it’s honest to marvel if the 26-year-old Torkelson and the Tigers would profit by parting methods. He might get a contemporary begin with a brand new workforce and a brand new set of coaches, and the Tigers might discover a first baseman whose each up and down isn’t a referendum on the selection they made six years in the past.

Mariners

The Mariners made this checklist in every of the previous two seasons, however buying and selling for Josh Naylor forward of the 2025 deadline shored up their first base manufacturing and helped them safe their first AL West title since 2001. Naylor then went on to change into one of many 2025 postseason’s breakout stars, and his re-signing through a five-year, $92.5 million deal added one other layer to the feel-good story. Alas, he’s hit simply .252/.317/.354 (95 wRC+) with eight residence runs. His bat velocity is down, as are his common exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit charges, anticipated stats, and so forth. Whereas he’s principally replicated final yr’s exorbitant 37% chase charge, his out-of-zone contact charge has climbed from 64.3% to 71.7%; he’s slugged simply .300 when making contact with 101 batted balls outdoors the zone, down from .382 on 112 such batted balls for all of final season. Whereas his protection has been fairly secure from yr to yr in response to FRV, it’s a special story in the case of DRS, the place he’s dipped from -1 to -7.

Given his long-term contract, Naylor isn’t more likely to be supplanted at first base, and it’s not just like the Mariners have a viable in-house various. In the event that they’re going to satisfy or exceed the heightened expectations raised by final season’s run, they want Naylor to get going — maybe not as badly as they want Cal Raleigh (who has a 71 wRC+ however ok protection and backup help to keep away from the Killers catcher checklist) to get going, however that isn’t an both/or proposition.

Blue Jays

At 45-51, the Blue Jays have their issues, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s hitting a skinny .262/.346/.357 (99 wRC+) with extra stolen bases (seven) than homers (six) is one in all them — hardly their largest one within the brief time period, however a relatively sizable one when you think about he nonetheless has 13 seasons remaining on his contract. Vladito has misplaced two miles per hour of common exit velocity from final yr (and three.8 from 2024 to ’26), along with his barrel charge dropping from 12.2% to six.9% and his xSLG from .506 to .406. He’s swinging at too many unhealthy pitches; his 31% chase charge is 9.6 factors above final yr’s mark and three.8 level above his profession charge, whereas his 72.8% out-of-zone contact charge is 8.8 factors above final yr’s mark and 11.8 factors above his profession one. He’s slugging simply .299 when making contact with these out-of-zone pitches, which account for 78 of his batted balls; by comparability, he slugged .362 in opposition to 80 such batted balls all of final season.

Guerrero is definitely taking part in fairly good protection at first base (5 DRS, 3 FRV), and so he has nonetheless turned in 1.0 WAR, and it’s price noting that he has the majors’ highest rest-of-season projection for any participant on the place. What’s dragging the Blue Jays into Killer territory is that by some means, within the 17 video games the place he hasn’t batted as a primary baseman — both whereas DHing or getting the occasional breather — 4 different fill-ins led by Lenyn Sosa (33 plate appearances) have mixed to go 7-for-66 with only one extra-base hit (a Kazuma Okamoto residence run) and -1.0 WAR. Man takes a break day and all the things simply goes to hell.

Rays

After buying and selling Brandon Lowe to the Pirates in December, the Rays dealt for Gavin Lux in January with the plan that he would take over the lengthy half of a second base platoon. He has but to play an everyday season sport for them resulting from accidents, nevertheless. He started the season on the injured checklist resulting from a proper shoulder impingement, then missed a few weeks throughout a rehab project after rolling his left ankle in April, and in mid-Might bought pulled off one other rehab project resulting from left shoulder irritation.

In his absence, Richie Palacios and Ben Williamson have performed the majority of the work at second. Each have been subpar on the offensive aspect, with Palacios hitting .237/.333/.338 (93 wRC+) and Williamson .253/.321/.338 (87 wRC+) general, with the latter producing only a 66 wRC+ throughout his time at second. With Lux now on a rehab project, the Rays will attempt to shore up this weak point from inside, seemingly by platooning him with the righty-swinging Williamson, although righty Ryan Vilade — who’s performed 4 innings at second this yr and has 41 video games on the place within the minors — presents one other various.

Orioles

Jackson Holliday has struggled to reside as much as his no. 1 prospect billing, although he did enhance from a 62 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR in 2024 to a 96 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR final season. He fractured his proper hamate bone throughout batting apply shortly after camp opened, requiring surgical procedure and delaying his 2026 season debut till Might 19. In his absence, Jeremiah Jackson and Blaze Alexander mixed to hit simply .259/.280/.397 (87 wRC+), albeit with strong protection.

Since returning, Holliday has hit .210/.324/.378 (100 wRC+), representing slight beneficial properties in OBP and SLG regardless of a 32-point drop from final yr’s batting common. His stroll charge has spiked from 8.6% to 14.8%, which could recommend that he’s avoiding swinging resulting from discomfort, however a fast take a look at his plate self-discipline stats exhibits that pitchers are in accordance him extra respect; his zone charge has dropped from 53.8% to 45.7%. His barrel charge has improved from 7.8% to 10.7%, however most of his contact stats have fallen off a bit, which does charge as a priority. Likewise with respect to his protection, which is kind of on observe to copy final yr’s unappealing -10 DRS and -6 FRV. He’s nonetheless simply 22 years previous, and it’s not just like the Orioles are about to surrender on him, however they actually might use some additional progress right here.

Astros

Jose Altuve has an inexpensive shot at winding up in Cooperstown some day, however the previous two seasons haven’t been fairly. An try and shift him to left area final season stalled partially as a result of his protection was even worse there — hey, you strive studying a brand new place at age 35 — than on the keystone, and his 113 wRC+ was his lowest full-season mark since 2013. This yr, his bat has fallen off additional; he’s hitting simply .235/.307/.404 (98 wRC+) whereas putting out 22.1% of the time, not only a profession excessive however practically 9 share factors above his profession mark, and greater than 5 factors above what he posted final yr. His high quality of contact has suffered to the purpose that he’s bought a .342 xSLG, his lowest within the Statcast period.

In the meantime, Altuve’s protection has been worse on a charge foundation than it was within the years main as much as the abortive place change. Even having misplaced three weeks in Might and June to an indirect pressure, in 588 1/3 innings he has -9 DRS and -5 FRV, with the latter metric already tying a profession low. His bat does appear to be coming round — with three homers in his previous six video games, he’s bought a 138 wRC+ thus far in July — however except the Astros need to strive him in left area once more, or have him at the very least share the place and DH obligation with Yordan Alvarez, they’re just about locked into his ups and downs right here.

Tigers

When he’s been obtainable, Gleyber Torres has hit a sturdy .280/.395/.395 (127 wRC+) with atypically strong protection (6 DRS, 1 FRV), however resulting from a recurrent indirect pressure, he’s performed simply 13 video games for the reason that begin of Might, and 43 whole on the season. Sadly, neither Hao-Yu Lee nor Zach McKinstry, who’ve stuffed in for Torres, has hit a lot, both whereas taking part in second base or one other place. Lee is batting .255/.288/.389 (87 WRC+) with -0.2 WAR, together with barely below-average fielding at second, whereas McKinstry, an All-Star final season, is hitting an anemic .197/.278/.298 (61 wRC+), with strong protection whereas spending time at 5 totally different positions propping him as much as 0.1 WAR.

With the workforce eight video games beneath .500, the Tigers may very nicely resolve to commerce ace Tarik Skubal, and in the event that they do, Torres — like Skubal, a pending free agent — may be a commerce candidate. In a vacuum, he’d symbolize an improve for a lot of the different groups right here, however becoming him onto a roster and a payroll (provided that he’s making $22.025 million) is much less of a positive factor for groups with a longer-term curiosity of their present second basemen.

Purple Sox

Marcelo Mayer started the yr as Boston’s common second baseman, then moved to shortstop when Trevor Story was sidelined by surgical procedure to restore a sports activities hernia. General, Mayer has hit a meager .220/.282/.312 (63 wRC+), and on June 26, he landed on the IL resulting from a stress response in his left ulna. At that time, he mentioned he had been battling discomfort within the arm for 2 months. Coincidentally sufficient, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who did a good bit of the second base work after Mayer shifted to brief, was sidelined by the identical damage simply six days earlier — an damage he attributed to swinging at most effort each time, which produced beneficial properties in swing velocity and a 97 wRC+ (.277/.344/.361), a profession excessive regardless of his lack of energy. That’s a tricky trade-off.

Each gamers are anticipated to return to the resurgent Purple Sox someday after the All-Star break, however neither has a transparent timeline. Of their absence, Boston has turned to Anthony Seigler, a 27-year-old rookie who came visiting from the Brewers within the Caleb Durbin deal, and who previous to that was a switch-pitcher in highschool after which a catcher within the Yankees’ chain. Seigler has hit a promising .257/.333/.419 (106 wRC+), albeit in simply 85 plate appearances. Whereas the Purple Sox can hope to get by with him within the brief time period, significantly as soon as Story returns later this month, an improve would stabilize the state of affairs.