5 days in the past, the Boston Celtics agreed to commerce Jaylen Brown for Paul George and draft compensation. The commerce couldn’t be made official till right this moment, so the staff hasn’t been capable of formally focus on the small print or clarify the thought course of behind the commerce. That airspace has invited rumors, inuendo, conspiracy theories, educated guesses (and a few uneducated ones), and each opinion beneath the solar.
At 4PM right this moment we’ll hear from Brad Stevens and Invoice Chisholm instantly. We’ll get their official statements on the commerce and we’ll hear them reply to many questions. I’m simply not fully positive if we’ll hear the complete fact of what transpired and what it means for the way forward for the franchise.
I don’t have a crystal ball, however listed here are some classes of topics which might be positive to be addressed.
One motive they might have determined to maneuver on from Brown was his contract. A number of good folks have identified that he’s getting supermax cash and possibly wouldn’t be ranked by many as a prime 5 participant within the league (or choose your vary). Which makes him a bit overpaid in a league the place the 2nd apron is handled as a defacto onerous cap. Certain, even the largest Jaylen Brown followers may settle for that, however that’s why you lean into cheaper, excessive worth contracts (like the fellows on rookie offers and Payton Pritchard who’s on one of many highest worth offers within the league). It additionally doesn’t clarify why you’ll take again Paul George, extensively thought-about one of many worst contracts in basketball.
I’ve a sense that Brad Stevens will discuss flexibility on some degree, as a result of flexibility is certainly one of his favourite buzzwords. Chisholm will discipline questions on how a lot of this was an possession mandate, nevertheless it doesn’t actually come throughout as a value chopping transfer as a result of they didn’t really minimize a lot value within the deal.
We in all probability gained’t get the complete image of how a lot cash influenced this deal.
Probably the most common matters being mentioned within the aftermath of this commerce has been the function of analytics within the analysis of Jaylen’s worth. The “effectively really” articles and information evaluation deep dives have centered round his superior analytics that may be checked out to color a reasonably destructive image of Jaylen’s worth to a basketball staff.
I’m not going to enter element professional or con on these numbers. I feel analytics are very a lot a essential a part of the sport right this moment and should be thought-about as a part of the general evaluation. The restrictions to Jaylen’s sport are effectively documented and don’t all the time want numbers to again them up. Nevertheless it has all the time appeared to me that his optimistic impression nearly all the time outweighed his struggles.
That is going to be a really delicate factor to deal with on the press convention. How do they justify the take care of numbers with out it wanting like they’re trashing their former pillar of the staff going out?
If he’s actually a internet destructive on the courtroom, why did the staff make investments a lot into him within the first place? Why wouldn’t they’ve traded him earlier? What modified and when did it change? Once more, I’m skeptical we’ll hear the complete fact about how a lot the numbers influenced this determination.
There are lots of different theories and rumors that I’m simply going to lump collectively beneath the heading of “the Human Component.”
Did Jaylen need his personal staff? It has been reported that he by no means requested for a commerce, so I’m guessing that gained’t be a acknowledged motive. We don’t know the way a lot he indicated a need to the staff to maneuver on or if he was planning on demanding a commerce later.
Was the staff pissed off with the way in which Jaylen spoke concerning the previous season on his twitch streams? Actually, this appears weak even writing it down. Many pearl clutching phrases have been written and spoken about his “favourite season” feedback, which have been addressed by him and simply defined away. I don’t purchase that this was an enormous subject and I extremely doubt that it is going to be named explicitly by the staff as a motive for the commerce.
Did Jayson Tatum wish to transfer on? Personally, I doubt this has something to do with it and even when it was, (for therefore many causes) they’d by no means admit it to be true or have something to do with the commerce.
Jaylen was an especially common participant with the fanbase and in the neighborhood of Boston. The staff will undoubtably be very cautious with something they are saying about him. If something, they may and will lean into celebrating him as an individual and beloved member of the franchise. So if there’s something private occurring behind the scenes, we gained’t hear about it right this moment.
This could be the one factor that makes some sense to me, however then again it doesn’t. Perhaps Jaylen shoots too many contested two pointers for the analytics staff to be comfy with. After all, these are generally the one photographs you could get within the playoffs when all the higher photographs are taken away. So it helps to have a man that may make these photographs.
Brad Stevens careworn the necessity to put extra stress on the rim. Nicely, Jaylen does a a lot better job of that than Paul George, who has advanced into extra of a deep menace perimeter participant than the rest.
Perhaps the staff wasn’t assured that Jaylen can be okay sliding again into the 1B function he had earlier than (associated to the above part on The Human Component) and George can be completely happy being a 2nd or third choice. That’s not an excellent motive to make this commerce both, and most definitely gained’t be named as a major motive.
One huge query that ought to completely be addressed is “why now?” The phrase that retains coming to thoughts is “desperation.” By all accounts, it appeared just like the staff didn’t have good affords for Jaylen however have been urgently motivated to finish a deal now. Why?
In any negotiation, it’s essential to have a really feel for what your strolling away value is and be ready to stroll away in the event you don’t get it. In some way, they both put a a lot decrease worth on Jaylen than most would have anticipated, or they have been so determined to get a deal performed that they accepted beneath market worth. Couldn’t they’ve gotten this similar type of deal later in the summertime and even on the commerce deadline?
Are there different offers coming? In that case when? And why couldn’t this have waited to be mixed with these further strikes?
Undecided if we’ll get passable solutions for this subject, however it is going to be fascinating to listen to their responses.
One factor I do know, I can be watching and listening very fastidiously to what’s stated (and isn’t stated). We want solutions from the Celtics management. I’m simply undecided if the solutions will inform the complete story or if they are going to be passable to followers.
The cognitive dissonance of this nonetheless puzzles me. Brad Stevens has “gained” so many offers over time and has constructed up a lot belief. It’s simply so jarring to see him “lose” certainly one of this magnitude. What does that imply for the close to and long run future? Is there something that he can say on this press convention that’s going to revive a part of that belief? I suppose we’ll see.
We are going to, in fact, report on the presser. Be happy to make use of this put up as an open thread for feedback beneath.
