WTC final scenarios – What do India, Australia, South Africa have to do to make the WTC final?

With 15 Checks to go within the present World Check Championship (WTC) cycle, a number of groups are nonetheless in competition, and no group is assured of a spot within the prime two. Right here is how the groups at present stack up.

South AfricaPercent: 59.26, matches remaining: SL (1 dwelling Check), Pak (2 dwelling)

South Africa’s complete win in Durban is one tick within the bag, out of the 4 they want, to make sure of a spot within the WTC remaining regardless of different outcomes. In the event that they lose the second Check in opposition to Sri Lanka and win each in opposition to Pakistan, they might nonetheless have a good likelihood of qualifying at 61.11%, however Sri Lanka and India might each go previous them – Sri Lanka, in the event that they win 2-0 in opposition to Australia, and India, in the event that they win at the very least three of their remaining 4 Checks in opposition to Australia. Australia can go previous 61.11 too with 4 wins and a draw, however in that case each India and Sri Lanka would end beneath South Africa.

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka within the second Check and draw 1-1 in opposition to Pakistan, they might nonetheless end on 61.11, however they might be assured of a spot within the remaining as Sri Lanka would solely get to 53.85 in the event that they win each Checks in opposition to Australia. Thus, solely certainly one of Australia or India can go previous South Africa in that case.

Sri LankaPercent: 50.00, matches remaining: SA (1 away Check), Aus (2 dwelling)

The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can end with a most of 61.54% in the event that they win their three remaining Checks. That may nonetheless assure a spot within the remaining, as solely India or Australia can end larger. In the event that they lose yet another Check and win two, their share will drop to 53.85, which might then depart them relying on a number of different outcomes. At the moment South Africa, India, Australia, and New Zealand can go previous 53.85.

New ZealandPercent: 50.00, matches remaining: Eng (2 dwelling)

New Zealand’s sloppy fielding in Christchurch may need scuppered any reasonable likelihood of constructing their second WTC remaining. A 3-0 sequence win in opposition to England would have taken them to 64.29%, however this defeat means the utmost they’ll obtain is 57.14. This might nonetheless be sufficient for them to complete among the many prime two – and even on prime of the desk – however for that a number of outcomes must go of their favour. As an illustration, if the Australia-India sequence finishes 1-1, as do South Africa’s two dwelling sequence and Sri Lanka’s dwelling sequence in opposition to Australia, then New Zealand will nonetheless prime the desk with 57.14. If a kind of groups go previous 57.14, New Zealand might but end second, however that also leaves them relying on too many different outcomes.

IndiaPercent: 61.11, matches remaining: Aus (4 away)

India’s emphatic win in Perth takes them again to the highest of the WTC factors desk, and retains their possibilities of making it to the ultimate at Lord’s subsequent yr very a lot alive. To make certain of ending among the many prime two, India nonetheless must beat Australia 4-1: 4 wins would carry India to 64.04, which might be greater than Sri Lanka’s most of 61.54 in the event that they had been to win their three remaining Checks, and greater than South Africa’s 61.11 in the event that they had been to beat Pakistan 2-0 however not sweep Sri Lanka. If South Africa had been to comb Sri Lanka as effectively 2-0, they might get to 69.44, that means India, with 4 wins in Australia, could be second on the factors desk.

Nevertheless, these eventualities are based mostly on different groups maximising their factors. If that does not occur, India might nonetheless make it with far fewer factors. If, for instance, these outcomes occur from the important thing upcoming sequence:

India lose to Australia 2-3
New Zealand draw with England 1-1
South Africa draw 1-1 at dwelling in each their remaining sequence, versus Sri Lanka and Pakistan
Australia draw 0-0 in Sri Lanka

Australia would end on prime at 58.77, however India’s 53.51 would nonetheless be sufficient for second place, forward of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). Thus, the place India end up additionally depends upon how the opposite outcomes pan out.

AustraliaPercent: 57.69, matches remaining: Ind (4 dwelling Checks), SL (2 away)

The defeat in Perth means Australia have loads to do to complete within the prime two with out relying on different outcomes. Provided that South Africa and Sri Lanka can each end on greater than 61%, Australia want 4 wins and a draw of their final six to complete forward of Sri Lanka’s most of 61.54; on this case solely South Africa, with a most of 69.44, might end forward of them.

If India had been to win the continued sequence 3-2, Australia might nonetheless end forward of them, however provided that they sweep the away sequence in opposition to Sri Lanka 2-0. On this case, Australia would end on 60.53, marginally forward of India’s 58.77. In that case, they might certainly end within the prime two, as solely South Africa might go previous that.

PakistanPercent: 33.33, sequence remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 dwelling)

Pakistan’s dwelling type has proven some revival, but it surely’s almost definitely too late on this cycle. In the event that they win every of their 4 remaining Checks, they might end on 52.38. In such a case, they might nonetheless want a number of outcomes going their technique to be in competition. If, for example, Sri Lanka lose 0-1 in South Africa and draw 1-1 in opposition to Australia, India lose 1-2 in Australia, and New Zealand lose 1-2 versus England, then Pakistan’s 52.38 could be sufficient for a second place behind Australia.

EnglandPercent: 43.75, matches remaining: NZ (2 away)

England’s win in Christchurch has marginally improved their share to 43.75. It is virtually sure that it will not be sufficient for qualification, although there is a mathematical likelihood of ending second on 48.86 if a number of different outcomes go their manner: if India get not more than 13 factors from their remaining video games, with the higher limits being six and 16 respectively for South Africa and Sri Lanka, then England might nonetheless end second to Australia.

Bangladesh and West Indies are out of competition for a spot within the prime two.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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