You Can’t Square Up Andrew Abbott

The Reds rotation has been an plain energy this season. The group’s starters are third in park- and league-adjusted ERA, and their collective peripherals principally again it up; they’re tenth in park- and league-adjusted FIP. Hunter Greene has been phenomenal, Nick Lodolo has made some key command enhancements, and Brady Singer has added a secret ingredient, although his ERA has ballooned to over 5.00 since Michael Baumann wrote about him final month. However the pitcher main the group in ERA is Andrew Abbott, and earlier than Baumann can write about his third Cincinnati starter this 12 months, I’d wish to take a stab at puzzling out what’s gone proper for the 25-year-old lefty.

What if I advised you that whereas Abbott’s fastball is coming in a few tick slower than regular and his arm slot is 5 levels increased than common, he has in some way managed to barely enhance the pitch’s Stuff+ rating? You is likely to be a bit confused, because the development for a lot of pitchers has been to try to decrease their arm slot in an effort to flatten out their four-seamers. A flatter strategy angle typically results in extra swings and misses on the high of the zone and weaker contact, as batters have hassle squaring up a pitch that appears prefer it’s rising above their bat. Abbott has at all times had a excessive launch level, however his 50 diploma arm angle is now the Eleventh-highest arm slot amongst certified left-handed pitchers.

Analysis into the connection between a pitcher’s arm slot and the form of their pitches has proven that as a pitcher’s arm slot rises, they’re capable of generate extra backspin. Extra backspin permits them to create extra induced vertical break (IVB). Put merely, IVB is a operate of arm angle. The opposite factor a few excessive arm angle is that purer backspin fastballs have a tendency to chop much less horizontally. Abbott has managed one thing considerably tough along with his new arm slot:

Regardless of the upper launch angle, Abbott hasn’t skilled a corresponding improve within the quantity of keep it up his heater. The opposite odd factor is that he’s been capable of keep the higher-than-normal horizontal break he generates with the pitch. As a result of he’s now throwing from a better slot, the pitch has a a lot steeper strategy angle, and the pitch’s cutter-esque form gives a wider horizontal strategy angle.

Abbott’s four-seamer now stands out each as a result of it doesn’t carry as a lot and since it cuts greater than you’d anticipate. A “lifeless zone” fastball describes a pitch with unspectacular motion traits — a fastball that strikes as anticipated. Analysis has proven {that a} fastball’s lifeless zone is a operate of the pitcher’s arm angle, resulting in the idea of a dynamic lifeless zone (DDZ). Utilizing Alex Chamberlain’s calculated DDZ deltas (based mostly on work performed by Max Bay), we will see simply how a lot Abbott’s fastball falls outdoors of what the batter expects based mostly on his arm slot:

Bear in mind, magnitude is what issues when evaluating a pitcher’s DDZ, so Abbott’s destructive vertical lifeless zone delta isn’t essentially a foul factor, although his +2.8 horizontal lifeless zone delta may be very a lot factor.

The outcomes have been optimistic thus far. His whiff price on the pitch has improved from simply over 19% throughout his first two seasons to 25.2% this 12 months. The extra swings and misses are good, however he’s additionally turned his heater right into a contact-suppression monster. Simply take a look at a few of these key contact metrics from Statcast:

Abbott’s anticipated wOBA on contact when he throws his fastball is simply .297, seventeenth among the many 248 pitchers who’ve thrown not less than 100 four-seamers this 12 months. The hard-hit and barrel charges towards the pitch are miniscule. Essentially the most spectacular facet of his contact administration comes from Statcast’s new bat monitoring information. Opposing batters produce the second-highest common bat pace in baseball towards Abbott’s fastball, however they “square-up” the pitch on the third-lowest price on a per swing foundation they usually produce a “blast” towards his heater on the fourth-lowest price in baseball. In different phrases, batters actually gear up once they see Abbott’s fastball as a result of their eyes are telling them that the pitch may be very hittable, however they merely can’t make stable contact towards it.

To attach this all again to the pitch’s form, I anticipate that this contact suppression is all linked to the quantity of horizontal break Abbott generates along with his fastball. Along with his excessive arm slot, a batter expects to see a straight four-seamer with tons of carry. As an alternative, they’re offered with a slicing fastball that doesn’t have as a lot carry as you’d anticipate. Quite than swing utterly beneath the pitch like they could if it had a ton of carry, they’ll typically put it in play, but it surely’s weak contact as a result of the pitch doesn’t are available in the place they anticipate it to horizontally. A lot of the contact he generates with the pitch is off the tip of the bat or in on the deal with, resulting in weak fly balls and popups.

After all, location issues, too. Within the first desk above, I included common vertical location, as a result of location is a important element of vertical strategy angle. Abbott is finding his fastball a lot decrease within the strike zone this 12 months, which, alongside along with his increased arm slot, has contributed to his steeper strategy angle. He’s additionally been very constant along with his location on the outer half of the plate to right-handed batters:

As a result of the horizontal break on the pitch causes it to tail away from righties, his location is ideal for inducing weak contact off the tip of the bat whereas avoiding the barrel if it finally ends up over the guts of the plate.

In case you have been apprehensive about Abbott’s dip in velocity, I’m completely happy to report that his heater has had a bit extra zip throughout his previous few begins:

A shoulder damage final August lower quick his 2024 season, and he entered spring coaching a bit of bit delayed due to it. I believe that he was nonetheless ramping up throughout his first few begins of the season and that his velocity might be again to regular shifting ahead.

Past his fastball and the brand new arm slot, there’s one key change to the remainder of Abbott’s repertoire that could possibly be contributing to his success. He’s getting about three extra inches of drop on his changeup whereas nonetheless sustaining the pitch’s above-average horizontal break. The whiff price on that pitch has improved by about 4 factors, and the anticipated wOBA towards it’s simply .222. Extra importantly, the change in form has allowed him to distinguish the pitch from his fastball a bit extra:

Please excuse the colour variations from 12 months to 12 months within the plots above. In Abbott’s pitch plot from 2024 on the left, his changeup (the black blob) considerably overlaps along with his fastball (the blue blob). In 2025, on the proper, his offspeed pitch (the inexperienced weblog) is wholly distinct from his heater (the blue blob).

Abbott briefly mentioned the evolution of the pitch with Charlie Goldsmith of the Dayton Each day Information in late April:

It’s come a great distance. I talked with Nick Martinez and a bunch of the fellows about methods to throw it, grips and all of that stuff. It’s lastly coming round. It’s to not the place I believe it may be but, but it surely’s gotten much more constant.

He has elevated his use of his changeup from 16.3% final 12 months to 21.3% this 12 months, and it has confirmed to be a potent weapon towards right-handed batters.

With a brand new arm slot, a misleading fastball, and an improved changeup in hand, Abbott has really elevated his arsenal. His stroll price is a bit of excessive proper now, however his strikeout price is 30.3%, and the contact suppression enhancements he’s made to his heater have nearly fully negated these extra free passes. The highest-line outcomes actually converse for themselves: Abbott has allowed a couple of run in simply one in every of his begins this 12 months, and that occurred to be the one begin through which he’s allowed greater than 4 hits. So long as batters are unable to sq. up his fastball, we could possibly be seeing a big step ahead from the younger lefty.