2026 Mock Draft 1.0 | FanGraphs Baseball

Right here is my first mock draft of the 12 months, compiled with rumors sourced from scouts, executives, brokers, and generally educated guesses based mostly on group/personnel tendencies from the current previous. If there may be sufficient new data between now and the draft (there normally is), I’ll publish an up to date mock on Saturday morning, earlier than issues hearth off. You’ll find up to date scouting stories and gear grades for over 100 gamers on The Board, together with all the gamers mocked under. I’ve hard-ranked all the 40+ FV and above gamers, with the others at the moment grouped by demographic. Later this week, I’ll provide my ideas on the category as an entire; we’ll additionally launch our remaining rankings. Brendan and I are engaged on increasing and augmenting the draft rankings for gamers more likely to go within the center rounds, so elements of that a part of the web site might need an “underneath development” have a look at occasions through the subsequent few days as we shuffle issues round and fold the demographic teams right into a remaining ordinal rating.

1. Chicago White SoxDecide: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Price Christian (TX)The highest tier of this draft is mostly seen as three gamers deep: Texas highschool shortstop Grady Emerson, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Groups selecting behind the highest three consider the almost certainly state of affairs is that these guys will come off the board in some order, with Roch and Emerson having been talked about up high with Chicago, whereas Lackey has not been. The White Sox tried to signal Cholowsky out of highschool and little doubt like him, however everybody has the identical query about Roch: Will his swing work in professional ball in addition to it has to this point? There actually aren’t questions like that about Emerson. We would study fairly rapidly that Cholowsky goes to strike out greater than we would like him to, whereas that appears unlikely for Emerson. Conversely, Emerson would possibly shock us and get stronger than we anticipate, at which level he’d fairly clearly have one of the best ceiling of this trio, and you’ll’t actually say that in regards to the school guys, who can both meet our expectations or fall in need of them.

2. Tampa Bay RaysDecide: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia TechThis looks as if a match made in heaven for each participant and group. The Rays have been in search of their catcher of the longer term for a very long time, and so they worth the issues Lackey does nicely (like throw and play protection) as extremely as any group. He’d transfer rapidly and help a perpetually aggressive roster, and maybe exorcise the Buster Posey/Tim Beckham demons. If the Rays need to minimize an under-slot deal, Tyler Bell is the participant I’d each advocate and predict the Rays do it with provided that they drafted him popping out of highschool.

3. Minnesota TwinsDecide: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLAThe Twins appear more likely to take whichever of the highest three gamers stays, which on this state of affairs is Cholowsky. When the Giants traded for Cleveland’s comp choose in Might as a part of the Patrick Bailey deal, there was hypothesis that it may be with a watch towards shopping for one of many high three gamers again to the fourth choose. If that’s true and I’m Minnesota, I’m asking for forgiveness and never permission as I take that participant. I’m turning within the title with out having a dialog with the agent and daring them to not take slot right here, particularly if it’s a university participant who stays.

4. San Francisco GiantsDecide: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa BarbaraI’m reducing in opposition to the grain of my sources right here, who’ve tended to place one of many subsequent tier of highschool hitters with San Francisco. That’s merely not what the Giants did final 12 months underneath their present management; as a substitute, they took secure school gamers. That hasn’t solely been their modus operandi since Michael Holmes turned Beginner Director in 2022 (they drafted Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin in 2023), however it largely has been, Dakota Jordan apart. The opposite decision-makers (Posey and Zack Minasian) have been inserted late in 2024. Possibly meaning they’ve had a chance to get comfy with this 12 months’s highschool class in a manner that wasn’t true of final 12 months’s group, placing highschool outfielder Eric Sales space Jr. and shortstop Jacob Lombard actually in play right here. Groups selecting behind the Giants definitely suppose so. No pitcher is “secure,” however Flora’s mixture of ceiling, proximity, and polish (to not point out good vibes, which the Giants badly want) threads the needle for them and suits higher with the best way the group has truly behaved of late. I’d have Sales space forward of Lombard right here if it seems I’m mistaken; there’s only a totally different diploma of threat related to the latter.

5. Pittsburgh PiratesDecide: Eric Sales space Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS (MS)It is smart for the Pirates to chop right here as a result of they’ve 4 top-51 alternatives and there’s a superb probability they might purchase again a top-30 participant to a minimum of a kind of, however they merely haven’t operated like that recently. They’ve fortunately taken excessive schoolers for slot and nonetheless walked away from drafts with a number of thrilling younger expertise with out having to get inventive. There’s trade hypothesis that the abruptly aggressive Pirates will take a university participant who can transfer rapidly to assist the massive league trigger, however as we’ve seen with Konnor Griffin, it doesn’t essentially take lengthy for the excessive schoolers to reach while you draft the correct one.

6. Kansas Metropolis RoyalsDecide: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL) There may be persistent trade buzz that the Royals are a minimum of contemplating reducing a deal right here, proper on all the way down to the quantity they’d be trying to save (about $2 million), however logically, that’s contingent upon the gamers they like so much being gone once they choose. I’m not positive what they consider Lombard. Scouting Director Brian Bridges has had an urge for food for hit instrument threat earlier than (Jac Caglianone, Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond have been the tops picks in his two drafts as Royals’ Director) and he was with the Giants they drafted Eldridge, Martin, and Reggie Crawford. Lombard is in that class of participant. If the Royals minimize a deal, the names bandied about have been two-way highschool participant Jared Grindlinger, high highschool pitcher Gio Rojas, and USC left-hander Mason Edwards.

7. Baltimore OriolesDecide: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky The Orioles have drafted toolsy hitters with strikeout points, together with some who really feel like they’ve zero probability to hit (like Vance Honeycutt), and in that vein, people are placing them with Lombard if he’s right here. Extra broadly, the Orioles prioritize gamers who can entry energy and have positional worth, and just like Colton Cowser just a few years in the past, Bell is that man. Of the school hitters who challenge to start out coming off the board on this vary, Bell, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron, and Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick are the gamers who greatest match that description, together with highschool third baseman Bo Lowrance (who I’ve ranked on this vary).

8. AthleticsDecide: Christopher Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&MThe A’s are usually on school bats, together with ones who’ve little to no defensive capacity, particularly once they have some elite knowledge traits. That’s Hacopian to a tee. He has a 95-97% contact price versus fastballs the final two seasons, together with on Cape Cod, and carried out this fashion regardless of preventing by way of harm. On the one hand, the accidents have restricted his knowledge pattern and made it much less dependable. On the opposite, it’s unimaginable what he’s finished regardless of being dinged up. LSU heart fielder Derek Curiel and Louisville outfielder Zion Rose (that is the earliest he’s been talked about) are the opposite school hitters with a premium knowledge trait (contact) on this vary, and there are people selecting behind the A’s who suppose they may see Ryder Helfrick as a Sean Murphy reboot.

9. Atlanta BravesDecide: Derek Curiel, CF, LSU The Braves are likely to prioritize up-the-middle gamers no matter whether or not they’re highschool or school gamers, and so they’ve been keen to make use of high picks on highschool pitching in recent times. It may be tempting for them to take Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress right here. He’s a neighborhood child, and so they have first hand data of the truth that small gamers will be nice (Ozzie Albies). It’d be enjoyable, however Burress isn’t a middle discipline lock like Curiel is, and the Braves like to take pace/contact guys who they assist to swing tougher and unlock energy. Curiel suits that invoice. I’ve heard Christopher Hacopian’s title right here, too. There’s hypothesis that Florida highschool lefty Gio Rojas may very well be a match right here, however all the highschool pitchers the Braves take have fairly deliveries, and Rojas doesn’t.

10. Colorado RockiesDecide: Zion Rose, OF, LouisvilleWhen a group has turnover on the high of their entrance workplace, I are likely to mock school gamers to them the next 12 months as a result of it’s a lot simpler to rise up to hurry on the school class because the vital highschool exercise has already occurred once they’re employed. Rockies GM Josh Byrnes, who got here from the Dodgers, has at all times seen a number of gamers all through the beginner calendar, so I’m unsure that logic holds as true for him because the baseline. That mentioned, Rose, who has houses from right here to the mid-20s, does numerous the stuff the Dodgers focused of their drafts whereas Byrnes was there. He hits for contact, he’s quick, and he might need one other offensive gear if his method and swing will be tweaked in order that he pulls the ball extra.

11. Washington NationalsDecide: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia TechThe Nats introduced in Justin Horowitz from the Pirates and Desmond McGowan from the Mets analytics division to assist navigate the draft underneath Paul Toboni. Horowitz, in fact, piloted high-upside drafts in Pittsburgh, whereas the Mets’ draftee traits have been measurable energy and pitchers with huge stuff, however reduction threat. Burress has the measurable energy piece and could be good worth right here. Gio Rojas could be the upside/reduction threat man on this spot (arguably Florida righty Liam Peterson, too), however I don’t have team-specific dope to that finish. Two-way California excessive schooler Jared Grindlinger has been talked about right here.

12. Los Angeles AngelsDecide: Mason Edwards, LHP, USCHere’s a cheerful medium between what the Angels have been doing underneath recently-fired GM Perry Minasian and what newly-hired John Mozeliak was doing in St. Louis. Edwards is a university lefty with knockout secondary stuff (particularly his curveball) and a misleading fastball that performs just a little higher than its velo, and he’s more likely to transfer rapidly. I’ve additionally heard the Angels with a number of of the school hitters who’re already off the board on this state of affairs.

13. St. Louis CardinalsDecide: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Seashore HS (CA)Grindlinger might go inside the highest 10 on an under-slot deal, however he has houses from simply earlier than this choose working although the subsequent a number of. The Cardinals’ method has shifted from the command-oriented pitching prospects to guys with large stuff and reduction threat, which places a number of of the subsequent tier of school arms in play right here.

14. Miami MarlinsDecide: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)The Marlins have focused huge upside in current drafts, normally with power-hitting place gamers who’ve struggled to hit. A continuation of that technique might make them Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron on this state of affairs. In the event that they need to change course, nicely, many of the high-contact school hitters are off the board right here. Highschool outfielder Trevor Condon is the prep model of that profile. That is late for the primary prep arm to go and could be nice worth, with a cherry of optimistic optics on high as a result of Rojas is native.

15. Arizona DiamondbacksDecide: Trevor Condon, CF, Etowah HS (GA) The D-backs like lefty bats and there are nonetheless a number of remaining right here, although a few of them have points that will arguably make them really feel like reaches. Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese has large energy, however he strikes out so much and might’t play protection, whereas Texas Tech and Virginia outfielders Logan Hughes and AJ Gracia are contact-oriented nook guys with modest energy. I like third baseman Bo Lowrance sufficient to take him this excessive, however my sources haven’t linked him with Arizona. Condon is of their wheelhouse as a possible A.J. Ewing kind of outfielder if he can add some pop as he will get stronger.

16. Texas RangersDecide: Hunter Dietz, LHP, ArkansasThere are a number of thrilling school pitchers with some type of harm historical past lurking on this portion of the draft, however Dietz’s problem (a stress fracture in his elbow) was a few years in the past and he dominated the SEC this 12 months.

17. Houston AstrosDecide: Justin Lebron, SS, AlabamaThe Astros love toolsy, strikeout-prone school gamers, and so they get an excessive model of that profile right here with Lebron. Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson has additionally been talked about with them, however it’s unclear in the event that they’d should take him right here or if Jackson would make it to their subsequent choose. Highschool third baseman Bo Lowrance’s vary appears to start out right here.

18. Cincinnati RedsDecide: Liam Peterson, RHP, FloridaThe Reds have taken many gamers from Florida (the state and the college) through the years, and so they aren’t obsessive about fastball form (Peterson’s isn’t nice), caring extra about velocity and breaking ball high quality, which Peterson has loads of. Ryder Helfrick could be wonderful worth right here, as he’s more likely to be a superb defensive catcher and get to energy regardless of a number of strikeouts. There’s some Trevor Condon smoke if he will get right here.

19. Cleveland GuardiansDecide: Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS (CA)The Guardians are likely to take somebody who, 4 months in the past, we’d have been shocked to study had fallen to this point. Typically that’s been Chase DeLauter and generally it’s Jace LaViolette. There are a variety of gamers who both had down seasons or who felt like they plateaued in a disappointing manner. Spangler regarded like a top-15 choose popping out of final summer season, then missed most of his senior 12 months with harm and regarded rusty on the Mix. Coastal Carolina righty Cameron Flukey is one other faller. He entered the season as arguably the highest pitcher within the class, however missed two months because of a stress fracture in his ribs and was wild when he returned.

20. Boston Crimson SoxDecide: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal CarolinaThe Crimson Sox used excessive picks on nasty pitchers with reduction threat final 12 months, and there are a number of nonetheless round at this choose, together with ASU lefty Cole Carlon, however Flukey’s strike-thrwoing observe document along with his fastball is a lot better, which is one thing final 12 months’s Sox picks have struggled with. That is additionally a spot talked about for an under-slot cope with a university bat. NC State and TCU heart fielders Ty Head and Chase Brunson are Boston’s kind.

21. San Diego PadresDecide: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal (SC)Zion Rose could be in San Diego’s combine if he will get right here, however I don’t suppose he’ll come shut. Groups assume the Padres will probably be in play for whichever of the nasty lefties are nonetheless round (no matter demo, although there are some who suppose they’ll simply take one other excessive schooler), however Lowrance does a few of the issues that Jackson Merril does, like cowl the highest of the strike zone with energy, besides he’s a huge-framed third baseman with the scout-y bodily projection the Padres love. AJ Preller was at Notre Dame righty Jack Radel’s ACC Championship begin, so maybe he’s an under-slot choice right here.

22. Detroit TigersDecide: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona StateCarlon’s stuff would ordinarily come off the board in the course of the primary spherical, about the place I’ve mocked Hunter Dietz, however he handled harm on the very finish of the 12 months (he was again for the Massive 12 event and regarded advantageous) and generally had hassle holding his velo deep into video games. He has possibly one of the best breaking ball in your complete draft.

23. Chicago CubsDecide: Aiden Robbins, OF, TexasThe Cubs care a ton about Cape Cod efficiency, and Robbins, who has different houses towards the again of the primary spherical, had a .936 OPS there in an enormous pattern.

24. Seattle MarinersDecide: Ryder Helfrick, C, ArkansasThis could be a shocking tumble for Helfrick, and he might simply go up the place I’ve the opposite strikeout-prone school hitters. There’ll most likely be just a few good school pitchers left right here in actual life.

25. Milwaukee BrewersDecide: Ace Reese, “3B”, Mississippi StateSimilar to Andrew Fischer, Reese has large lefty energy however might be not a 3rd baseman. Might the Brewers coax extra energy out of a greater pure hitter, like AJ Gracia or Logan Hughes?

26. Atlanta BravesDecide: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian (SC)Bolemon is the Braves’ kind of highschool pitcher, a well-built athlete with a sleek supply, vertical fastball assault, and an influence breaking ball.

27. New York MetsDecide: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, TennesseeUnlike a few of the different reduction threat pitchers the Mets have taken and developed of late (like Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat), Kuhns’ points should do with the standard of his secondary pitches. He’s an excellent athlete who throws strikes with an uphill fastball, and has some low-hanging developmental fruit (throw tougher variations of his breaking balls). Highschool catcher Will Brick will get talked about right here as nicely.

28. Houston AstrosDecide: Daniel Jackson, C, GeorgiaAs talked about above, the Astros like toolsy school guys, even once they have strikeout points. Jackson’s have been significantly unhealthy as soon as convention play started, although he went on to win the Golden Spikes.