No Surprise: Clayton Kershaw Is Back With the Dodgers

On Tuesday, pitchers and catchers formally reported to Camelback Ranch, the spring coaching dwelling that the Dodgers share with the White Sox in Glendale, Arizona. Among the many Dodgers reporting was a well-known face, that of Clayton Kershaw. In line with ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, the three-time Cy Younger winner — who had entered free company for the fourth offseason in a row — has agreed to phrases with the Dodgers and can return for his 18th main league season.

For as a lot because the transfer was anticipated, the sight of Kershaw in camp was a reassuring harbinger of spring. Given his accomplishments and the slew of accidents he’s endured lately, the continuation of the longer term Corridor of Famer’s profession isn’t one thing to take without any consideration. The small print of his contract haven’t been introduced at this writing, and the deal remains to be pending a bodily. As soon as it’s finalized, we are able to most likely count on some incentives and mechanisms that assist to decrease the workforce’s tax hit, whether or not within the type of deferred cash or a much less profitable participant choice for 2026. The Dodgers’ 40-man roster is full, however with the opening of camp, the workforce can switch gamers to the 60-day injured listing and unencumber roster spots. On Tuesday, they did simply that with a view to accommodate the return of Enrique Hernández, transferring pitcher Gavin Stone, who will miss the entire season resulting from shoulder surgical procedure, to the 60-day IL.

Kershaw, who turns 37 on March 19, could possibly be a candidate for a 60-day IL slot himself, as he underwent a pair of offseason surgical procedures following a season during which he made simply seven begins totaling 30 innings, the final of them on August 30. He was a bystander through the Dodgers’ championship run, although anybody who witnessed both the clubhouse festivities at Yankee Stadium — throughout which Kershaw shed his shirt — or the celebration at Dodger Stadium following their victory parade by Los Angeles can attest that he was no much less exuberant concerning the workforce’s World Sequence win.

“I didn’t have something to do with this championship, however it seems like the perfect feeling on the earth,” Kershaw informed the Dodger Stadium crowd, his voice cracking. “Dodgers for all times!”

Clayton Kershaw: Dodger for all times ? pic.twitter.com/o7P0Ecvudy

— MLB (@MLB) November 1, 2024

Certainly, in contrast to a few his latest journeys by free company, Kershaw didn’t muse brazenly about the potential for becoming a member of the Texas Rangers with a view to play nearer to Highland Park, the Dallas suburb the place he grew up and nonetheless makes his offseason dwelling. Nevertheless, he did decline the $10 million participant choice on the again finish of a two-year, $10-million-plus-incentives contract that he signed with the Dodgers in February 2024, a transfer that freed up a roster spot for the workforce over the winter.

Since we’ve seen so little of Kershaw up to now 16 months, a refresher is so as. In 2023, he pitched to a 2.46 ERA and 4.03 FIP in 24 begins totaling 131.2 innings, incomes a spot on the NL All-Star workforce for the tenth time alongside the best way. Earlier than he might pitch within the All-Star Sport, nonetheless, he landed on the IL resulting from shoulder soreness, missed six weeks, and returned to throw simply 36.1 innings in eight post-injury begins. The standard of his stuff (as measured by each the Stuff+ and PitchingBot pitch fashions) was notably down, and his outcomes mirrored that.

Although supervisor Dave Roberts hinted that Kershaw was not absolutely wholesome, the workforce nonetheless tabbed him to begin Sport 1 of the 2023 Division Sequence towards the Diamondbacks. Kershaw was tarred and feathered, retiring only one batter whereas being charged with six runs, and he didn’t get a shot at redemption as a result of the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers. On November 3, 2023, the supply of his second-half decline got here into focus when he revealed that he had undergone surgical procedure to restore the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. On the time, he mentioned he hoped to return to pitch for the Dodgers “in some unspecified time in the future subsequent summer season.”

After formally re-signing with the Dodgers in early February, Kershaw lastly made his 2024 season debut on July 25, throwing 4 wobbly innings towards the Giants. He didn’t full 5 innings till his fourth begin, a 5.2-inning, six-strikeout, one-run efficiency towards the Brewers on August 12. He adopted that with six shutout innings of the Cardinals on August 18, however then was hit laborious whereas permitting 5 runs in 5 frames towards the Rays on August 24. One batter into the second inning of his August 30 begin towards the Diamondbacks, he departed resulting from ache in his left huge toe, and was subsequently recognized with a bone spur. He continued his throwing program, with the workforce readjusting his spikes to assist compensate for his soreness, however compromised mechanics triggered ache in different components of his physique, no small matter given not solely the shoulder surgical procedure however his previous again points. On October 5, the workforce introduced that he can be shut down no matter how far the Dodgers superior within the playoffs, a choice that, at the side of different accidents (most notably Tyler Glasnow’s elbow sprain), led to the Dodgers relying upon a three-man rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, and Jack Flaherty plus occasional openers of their sequence towards the Padres, Mets, and Yankees.

Shortly after the World Sequence, orthopedic surgeons performed a doubleheader on Kershaw’s left leg. One surgical procedure, carried out by Dr. Kenneth Jung, addressed not solely the bone spur in his left foot but additionally arthritis and a ruptured plantar plate, the ligament that runs beneath the metatarsal heads and retains the toes aligned. The opposite surgical procedure, performed by Dr. Neil ElAttrache, repaired a torn meniscus in his left knee, an harm that didn’t come to gentle till he went by testing concerning his foot.

Each accidents, together with Kershaw’s restoration from shoulder surgical procedure, present context for his unimpressive 2024 numbers (4.50 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 4.59 xERA, 18% strikeout price) and his diminished stuff, which included a four-seam fastball whose 89.9 mph common velocity represented an 0.8-mph drop from his ’22 and ’23 averages. Each of our pitch modeling techniques recommend his arsenal was at the least higher than throughout his post-injury stretch in 2023, albeit primarily by way of command:

When Kershaw has been wholesome, his fastball has at the least performed about common and his breaking balls have been above common to distinctive, relying upon which mannequin you select. The hope is that he’ll be capable to faucet into that pre-injury kind. Even on lesser workloads, he was fairly efficient from 2021–23, posting a 2.75 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and a 27.8% strikeout price whereas averaging 127 innings and three.2 WAR per season.

Whereas Kershaw’s rehab has progressed to the purpose that he was noticed going by his throwing program at Camelback on Tuesday, it’s unclear how quickly he’ll be game-ready. If he’s positioned on the 60-day IL — which might prolong his streak of seasons with a visit to the IL to 10 — he gained’t be eligible to return till late Might on the earliest. Even when he’s prepared sooner, the Dodgers aren’t relying on him to shoulder the workloads of his heyday. Aware of their threadbare October rotations, president of baseball Andrew Friedman has completely loaded up on beginning pitching. Through the winter of 2023–24, the workforce signed Yamamoto and traded for Glasnow. Whereas they misplaced Buehler and Flaherty to free company, they signed lefty Blake Snell and one other Japanese star, righty Roki Sasaki. Someday round Might, they count on that Shohei Ohtani will return to full unicorn standing by taking the mound following late-2023 UCL reconstructive surgical procedure, as nicely November ’24 surgical procedure to restore a tear in his left (non-throwing) labrum. Add Kershaw to the combo and that’s already six.

Notably with Yamamoto, Sasaki, and Ohtani all used to working in six-man rotations in Japan (and, for the latter, in Anaheim), and with not one of the above pitchers throwing greater than Glasnow’s 134 innings final yr, the Dodgers are prone to go that route in 2025. They haven’t any scarcity of pitchers to fill within the gaps whereas Ohtani and Kershaw full their rehabs. Tony Gonsolin didn’t pitch for the Dodgers final yr, however after present process Tommy John surgical procedure on September 1, 2023, he did make three begins for Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis final September and drew at the least temporary consideration for the postseason roster. Dustin Might is coming back from surgical procedure to restore an esophageal tear, and Bobby Miller is hoping to rediscover the electrifying stuff that made him such a compelling rookie in 2023 earlier than he bottomed out following a bout of shoulder irritation in ’24. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski all noticed time with the workforce in 2024, with the primary two of these pitchers becoming a member of them within the postseason; Casparius even opened Sport 4 of the World Sequence (the Dodgers’ lone loss).

When Kershaw does return, he’ll be chasing a serious milestone. He’s 32 strikeouts away from changing into the twentieth pitcher — and simply the fourth lefty, after Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and CC Sabathia — to succeed in 3,000 strikeouts. He’s additionally about 0.6 bWAR away from passing Robin Roberts to maneuver into the highest 20 in S-JAWS. He’s already performed greater than sufficient to make sure a spot within the Corridor of Fame some day, however these can be spectacular capstones to his profession. As for whether or not that is his final go-round, it’s not an unreasonable assumption, notably if he winds up sidelined by one other main harm. Even when he’s absolutely wholesome, there’s little doubt that he’s close to the top of his profession, so any highlights he produces will likely be ones to savor.